BlackBook - Friday, 16 December 2022
Please see below for our #BlackBook runner comments for Friday, 16 December 2022. All #BlackBook runners come from our weekly reviews and our split into two categories - these are are summarised in our "BlackBook Runners - Summary" with our confidence and thoughts. We have also included some runners in our "BlackBook Runners - Watchlist" that are those worth keeping in mind if you're playing the race. For information on our staking, see here.
GEELONG - Race 1
#9 SCUDERIA has now put two solid jump out wins on the board now, the first over 850m on the synthetic track on Nov 21 with the latest coming over 1000m in Heat 14 on Dec 1. The 3yo Squamosa filly showed nice early speed to lead as she was too speedy in the end, winning in the fastest time of the morning too. This is her second prep having had a pair of jump outs back in June, the first was over only 700m but the second on Jun 29 saw her win, defeating Intrepid Eagle (won MDN first up) and PowerShare (since 4th and 2nd). She’s looked solid enough at the jump outs and is one worth keeping an eye on for her debut.
GEELONG - Race 3
#11 BELTHIL (11) - A Bobbin
We mentioned an un-raced runner for Andrew Bobbin following a Nov 16 jump out where he went to the line alongside Deep Speed and Decent Raine and didn’t look out of place as they clocked the fastest time of the morning. This colt is BELTHIL, a 3yo colt from New Zealand who was back at the jump outs for his second bit of work, winning Heat 9 on Dec 1. He was ridden with no urgency here, dropping back to near last while wide throughout, coming out to the middle of the track as they rounded the bend and showing a huge turn of foot late to get past the field and win quite comfortably in the end, clocking nice time in the process. Looking at his NZ form, his last run saw him finish a close 2nd to Pacific Dragon who then ran 2nd to She’s Licketysplit by only 0.1L and is now in HK, which is super form. Love that he had the quiet JO followed but a pushed out one that saw him respond to riding, so he will be right to go now and very keen to follow him into his debut. He looks talented.
#3 DENNIS CHOUX is a very interesting runner being an un-raced 5yo gelding by Jimmy Choux, so connections have certainly been very patient and it may of paid off. He looked pretty good as he won Heat 6 on Nov 16, albeit in slowish time for the morning. He just went through the motions here and went to the line untouched in an encouraging performance.
#3 DENNIS CHOUX has looked quite solid in all three of his jump outs now. The un-raced 5yo gelding cruised to the line in a Nov 16 jump out win over 900m before stepping out over 1000m on Dec 1 where he drifted to last and was ridden out to close into 2nd but a long way behind the winner in Irish Consort. He went around again over 1000m in Heat 15 on Dec 9 where he got a lovely trailing position along the rail before getting the gap late and closing well, making good ground past the line as well. He’s an un-raced 5yo but certainly doesn’t look to be short of racing ability.
GEELONG - Race 4
#12 JENNI L’ARTISTE just fell out of the gates in a previous jump out at Ballarat on Oct 18, subsequently just walking to the line so ignore that run. She wasn’t away great in Heat 18 on Nov 7 but her work post the jump was super as she showed nice early speed to lead and then just cruised to the line over the 1000m. She clocked about average time for the morning, but she easily could’ve opened up a bigger margin if she was asked for any sort of effort, especially considering those behind her were ridden out but couldn’t keep up. A 4yo daughter of Turn Me Loose, she looks quite a nice mover.
MOONEE VALLEY - Race 2
#2 MUGEN (8) - C McDonald
MUGEN is very smart, simple as that. We mentioned him last week following his Nov 7 win and he left nothing to the imagination this week in Heat 6 on Nov 14, recording a dominant 3L+ win on past winners in Piaggio and Vassilator. This was quite a dominant win - he showed nice gate speed but elected to drop back to take a sit on the leaders who snuck a bit of a break around the bend but the Heavy track was no worries for this gelding as he went bang in the straight with absolute ease. They don’t win much more impressively than this and he did record the fourth fastest time of the morning, so the substance is there too. Would be surprised if he doesn’t head over to Hong Kong now but if he does debut here, very keen to be with him.
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BLACKBOOK RUNNERS - SUMMARY
Confidence - Comments
Geelong, Race 1
#9 SCUDERIA (2) - T Carberry
She's now put together two lovely JO wins and should be going well here on debut, especially with the beautiful draw of barrier 2.
Playing ½ now at $7 and the other ½ at SP.
Geelong, Race 2
#7 TOLPUDDLE (7) - G Begg
He debuted in a really strong race that was won by Grand Impact. He was 3rd that day with Blow In 2nd (who has since won 2x races) while 5th and 6th both won their next start and 4th was 3rd next start.
He’s had two nice jump outs ahead of his return now, the first on Nov 14 followed by 1000m JO on Nov 28 where he looked really good.
Drawn well here and this is a very winnable race so want to be with him at $3+ this morning, think he starts more $2.50-ish.
Geelong, Race 3
#3 DENNIS CHOUX (8) - S Morrish
His JO's have been solid but can't have him over BELTHIL so at the price, can have a saver bet on him at the $10+ to breakeven.
#11 BELTHIL (11) - A Bobbin
He's got the perfect set up here having had the 2x JO's, one quiet/quick and one ridden out. He's been gelded since coming over from NZ as well where his form is really good.
Expecting him to be running really well here on debut and keen to be with him. Playing late looking for a drift.
Geelong, Race 4
#12 JENNI L'ARTISTE (6) - C Maher & D Eustace
We were very keen on her on debut and she ran horribly despite being $1.50, although she potentially hated the (very) Heavy track so maybe she turns up much improved here second up as she steps up from 1200m to 1509m?
Have to be with her here, we were way too keen on debut to be jumping off. Forgiving that run and having another bet here at the $5+.
Moonee Valley, Race 2
#2 MUGEN (8) - C McDonald
He's another we were way too keen on for his debut to be jumping off so quickly when he was only just beaten. From that race, 4th and 6th have since won while 3rd has since ran 2nd, so it's handy form and the race rated really well for this.
Have to be with him here 2UP - backing but playing late.
Canterbury, Race 2
#9 DIFFERENT DRUM (6) - J Pride
BLACKBOOK RUNNERS - WATCHLIST
Canterbury, Race 2
#11 PARTY DOLL (8) - B Widdup
BlackBook trial comments:
PARTY DOLL can’t have done much more at the trials ahead of her debut. She won a 800m trial at Gosford on Nov 21 where she sat off the leader and closed really well late down the middle of the track, clocking the second fastest time of the morning in the process. The 2nd horse has since ran 4th and the 3rd horse has since ran 6th, so only fair form. She then stopped out over 790m here at Kembla Grange, winning Trial 13 on Dec 7 by 5L in the clear fastest time of the morning. She began really well here, pushed forward to lead before being challenged on the inside but she was too good late, kicking away for a very comfortable win despite not actually being put under pressure, eased down late. We always have a bit of a query on those that trial well over only 800m, which is the same here but she’s looked good enough and one of those 900m maidens in NSW could be really suitable.
No bet recommended.
Last Updated: 9:55am on Friday, 16th December 2022.
Overall Results by Category (since Aug 2020):
'Highlighted' Runners: 702x runners | 214x winners (30%) & 225x placings (63%)
Ave Betfair SP | $8.11 WIN $2.28 PLC
'Other' Runners: 1096x runners | 266x winners (24%) & 299x placings (52%)
Ave Betfair SP | $12.20 WIN $3.01 PLC
Overall Results by Confidence (since Aug 2022):
High Confidence: 41x runners | 24x wins (59%) & 11x placings (85%)
Medium Confidence: 78x runners | 32x wins (41%) & 20x placings (67%)
Low/Medium Confidence: 73x runners | 15x wins (21%) & 23x placings (52%)
Low Confidence: 16x runners | 4x wins (25%) & 4x placings (50%)
We know that everyone takes a different approach to their staking, which is why we don't delve into specific staking for each of our runners and we leave how you stake and bet our runners completely up to the individual.
Personally, we have followed different staking systems over the years to fine tune our own punting, but have found that the most profitable approach is to follow a "Collect system".
This system means that the punter (us) bets on the win only (no place bet) to collect 4% of our bank on every BlackBook runner we have. To begin, you need to select a starting bank - as an example, a starting bank of $10,000 will see us betting to collect $400 (4%) on each runner.
If a runner is $2, we will bet $200 @2 to collect $400.
If a runner is $20, we will bet $20 @20 to collect $400.
If a runner is $3.50, we will bet ~$114 @3.50 to collect ~$400.
We highly recommend having a read of the below PDF document from Dan O'Sullivan in regard to the Six Rules to Increase Profit, Staking like a Professional and Punting As An Investment (see here):