BlackBook - Friday, 14 October 2022
Please see below for our #BlackBook runner comments for Friday, 14 October 2022. All #BlackBook runners come from our weekly reviews and our split into two categories - these are are summarised in our "BlackBook Runners - Summary" with our confidence and thoughts. We have also included some runners in our "BlackBook Runners - Watchlist" that are those worth keeping in mind if you're playing the race.
MOE - Race 2
#7 MAJOR KEY (7) - J Sadler
Have loved the jump outs of MAJOR KEY ahead of her debut. The 3yo Jukebox filly caught the eye when leading from start to finish on Sep 20, travelling beautifully in the run throughout under a hold from Damian Lane who was on board again for her win in Heat 8 on Oct 4, so look for him to stick for her debut. She’s got a friendly racing pattern, sitting on speed in both of her jump outs and despite not being asked for an effort, she looked like she had a lot more to give. As mentioned previously, her mum didn’t win a race in 6x starts but was Group 3 and Group 2 placed. Big watch on her, she looks talented.
#6 LACEMAKER took really nice improvement from her Sep 26 jump out into her win in Heat 9 on Oct 3 over the 800m. In her first jump out, she was quietly ridden in 4th place with the winner in Katsu since winning a BM64. Coming into her second jump out here, she took up a more prominent position in the lead where she was just then too speedy, kicking away in the straight to record a dominant victory as she went on with it past the line, which is always the most encouraging of any jump out. A $100k purchase for Roll The Dice racing, she looks a speedy Deep Field filly that can move.
MOE - Race 3
#2 CHARGENLIKEPLUMA was beaten by 21.3L, 83.5L and 8.1L in his first three career starts before the blinkers went on and he ran a nice 4th at $61 SP, going down by only 1.1L to Broadway Lane who then won a BM58 at his next start. It wasn’t surprising to see the blinkers on here in Heat 11 on Sep 26 with the 4yo gelding jumping straight to the front and bolting in over 800m. Expect to see another jump out but he might be one at a huge price first up that is worth a spec.
PAKENHAM - Race 1
#4 MAGIC TIME’s first jump out on Jul 11 was only fair, but she improved into her Jul 25 win before a 9-week let up into her win in Heat 12 on Sep 26. The 3yo Hellbent filly was away only fair, settling in behind the leaders before showing a lovely turn of foot over the concluding stages to get over the top and win quite comfortably. She likely has another jump out prior to her debut due to that break, but regardless, she moved well here and looks to go well.
PAKENHAM - Race 4
We had #5 FAST VICTORY on our watchlist following a pair of jump outs on Apr 14 (alongside Alcedo who ran 2nd on debut before being exported) and Apr 22, where he was pushed out and ran over the top of Atlantis Tycoon (won on debut), Champagne In Lace (since 4th, 4th & 3rd) and Rain Lord (since 2nd & 2nd). He’s been given time, returning in Heat 3 on Aug 26 for a nice all the way victory alongside a colt we have a lot of time for in Breaking Ground. A 3yo gelding that was a $120k purchase from the Inglis Classic Yearling Sales, he’s one we’re monitoring.
#5 FAST VICTORY was given a much more of a hit out this week, ridden out to win Heat 2 on Sep 2 (red) following a quiet Aug 26 jump out ahead of the 61-rated Lady Proisir. This was a super jump out, but it was good to see him put under pressure and respond, really extending past the line to bring him on ahead of his debut. He’s a nice enough gelding and he certainly has a maiden win in him. Must follow into his debut.
Reece Goodwin has had plenty of success with the tried horses and it looks like it may continue with #13 POTATO PETE. The 5yo gelding has had the 4x career starts for no placings with Matt Laurie, three of those as a colt back in 2021 and one of this prep earlier this year (in July) where he was 6th of 12 at an SP of $5. Now with Reece, he put in a super bit of work in Heat 7 on Oct 4 when coming from a long way back in the field to finish 3rd, only going down by a head. He showed a lovely turn of foot here in a very encouraging jump out and we’d be keen to follow him into his first run for the new stable on the back of this.
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BLACKBOOK RUNNERS - SUMMARY
Confidence - Comments
Moe, Race 2
Near impossible to bet here and it's a Heavy10 track - if playing, MAJOR KEY on top ahead of LACEMAKER but they're $2.20 & $2.10 currently...
We may message in a late play if prices change but doubt that happens in a 4x horse field so looks like one we'll have to sit out and just watch.
#6 LACEMAKER (2) - M Price & M Kent Jnr
#7 MAJOR KEY (3) - J Sadler
Moe, Race 3
#2 CHARGENLIKEPLUMA (2) - R Griffiths & M de Kock
Latest jump out Oct 3 was probably only fair when beaten back in 3rd over 800m but it looked as though he didn't have his blinkers, which he had on in his first JO and in clearly his best race performance - they're on here for raceday.
Think he's worth a small bet but expecting him to get out in price so going to play late - not a stack of confidence, but can run a cheeky race where there are plenty of chances and no standouts.
Pakenham, Race 1
#4 MAGIC TIME (4) - G Begg
Loved her most recent jump out, it was that of a smart filly as she closed super over the concluding stages. There isn't anything else special in this race so think she's the clear one to beat and expect her to be hard to beat. Quite keen to be with her!
Pakenham, Race 4
Backing both our runners in FAST VICTORY ($4+) and POTATO PETE ($11+) for even returns.
#5 FAST VICTORY (13) - B & JD Hayes
We were shattered when he got done on the line on debut - it was a super run from a wide barrier, which he is going to have to do again here from barrier 13. He'll take plenty of improvement from that debut and the drop back from 1200m to 1000m suits his race style.
If he can get across easy for a nice lead, he'll be hard to beat.
#13 POTATO PETE (6) - R Goodwin
We've bought into this horse with Reece Goodwin since his jump out. He was purchased for only $8.5k from Matt Laurie and should be a little bit of fun!
His previous runs have been ordinary, but Reece has dropped him back to 1000m for the first time ever as he has always gone well at the JO's but not so well at the races over 1400m. His latest JO here at Pakenham was super and he did start $5 first up, so there was market expectation.
He'll likely be one to try to come over the top late and we certainly think he can improve here and run a cheeky E/W race.
Last Updated: 8:24am on Friday, 14th October 2022.
Results (Aug '20 to Today):
689x runners | 210x winners (30%) & 218x placings (62%)
Ave Betfair SP | $8.21 WIN $2.30 PLC
1022x runners | 241x winners (24%) & 279x placings (51%)
Ave Betfair SP | $12.31 WIN $3.04 PLC
How you stake and bet our runners is completely up to you. Everyone takes a different approach to their staking - we know some like to back each runner to profit the same (e.g. profit 10 units for each runner), some back each runner according to our confidence (e.g. 1 unit for low/medium, 2 units for medium, 3 units for high etc.) and many others.
Personally, we follow a system where we bet on the win only (no place) to collect 4% of our bank on every runner. For example, if your starting bank is $10,000, then you will be betting to collect $400 (4%).
If a runner is $2, you will bet $200 @2 to collect $400.
If a runner is $20, you will bet $20 @20 to collect $400.
If a runner is $3.50, you will bet ~$114 @3.50 to collect ~$400.
We highly recommend having a read of the below PDF document from Dan O'Sullivan in regard to the Six Rules to Increase Profit, Staking like a Professional and Punting As An Investment (see here):