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BlackBook - Friday, 14 January 2022

Please see below for our #BlackBook runner comments for Friday, 14 January 2022. The runner's highlighted are our #BlackBook runners (the key runners of focus), while those included in the 'other' section of each race are additional runner's that have jumped out well enough to be worth noting. Our figures and benchmark ratings are from PuntingForm.


CRANBOURNE - Race 3

OTHER

After a disappointing first two runs, #4 KOOLATAH has been gelded and returned in super order to win Heat 8 on Dec 10 by a big margin in nice time. Being by Shocking, you’d expect him to get out over much further so there is certainly some extra merit in running a solid 800m jump out. Expect him to have another bit of work before heading to the races.


OTHER RUNNERS

Gosford, Race 2 - BLUESKIN

Dec 14 (Rosehill) - this 3yo colt did not look out of place when finishing 2nd and splitting King Of Sparta and And We Danced - he went forward to sit outside the leader and went to the line untouched, a very nice first trial - he’s well bred too, out of the Group 2 winning mare Arinosa - big watch.

 
OUR THOUGHTS

Going to leave today and have the day off - says a few showers expected and with the scratching of 3-4 of our other BlackBook runners, we're left with only the 1 runner for the day.


KOOLATAH's latest jump out really dampened the confidence. He needs to improve a bit to win but wouldn't talk you out of having $5-$10 on, don't think he's really worth backing though.


OUR BETS

As a rule of thumb, our new 'units' system will be based on the following staking plan:

  • 0.25 units is a speculation ('spec') bet at a bigger price.

  • 0.50 units to 1.00 units is a low confidence bet.

  • 1.00 units to 2.00 units is a medium confidence bet.

  • 2.00 units to 3.00 units is a high confidence bet.

  • 5.00 units is the maximum bet and is a 'special', or a very high confidence bet.

In addition, we're putting more of an emphasis on our highlighted runners (medium to high confidence bets) and lower bets on our 'Other' runners (low confidence). This is because the highlighted runners are striking at 31% WIN & 62% PLC since August 2020 for 600+ runners.


No plays. Total outlay is 0.00 units.


Overall (since 21 Oct, 2021): +29.19 units at Recommend Price | +62.37 units at Betfair SP


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