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BlackBook - Friday, 14 April 2023

Please see below for our #BlackBook runner comments for Friday, 14 April 2023. All #BlackBook runners come from our weekly reviews and our split into two categories - those that we are betting / playing are summarised in our "BlackBook Runners - Tips Summary" with our confidence and race thoughts, while those we aren't betting / playing are included in our "BlackBook Runners - Watchlist" and are worth keeping in mind if you're playing the race. For information on our staking, see here.


SEYMOUR - Race 3

OTHER

It was a big and easy win for #15 TORONADO ROUGE in Heat 2 on Apr 3, allowing the breakaway leader to do its thing while she just cruised a few lengths off him before getting a very easy run along the inside to record that dominant victory in nice time over the 1000m. She did similar in her Mar 16 jump out but couldn’t quite reel in the leader in Easy Jay (who has since ran 3rd in a MDN) but did put a solid gap on 3rd place that day. She could only manage 6th on debut but was quite unlucky as she was on the back of the leader who dropped out to finish last and as a result, she went from sitting 2nd before the bend to near last at the top of the straight (stewards report says held up from 400m to 250m) - in addition, she still managed to run the 4th fastest L200m of the meeting so if she didn’t get on the back of a donkey, she arguably could’ve kicked away and won. She’s been given time since then and looks to have come back in good order so she’s a filly to keep an eye on first up in her second preparation.


CRANBOURNE - Race 1

OTHER

Extreme Choice might have another nice horse in #9 RED DATES, the 2yo filly cruising throughout Heat 4 on Apr 6 as she showed nice gate speed to lead and then just dropped the head as she did it very easily throughout. Loved her work late too once she was asked to wake up, hitting the line nicely ahead of the race fit Remedies (coming off a 4th placing behind Steel City in a Group 3 only 4-weeks ago). She did similar in a Mar 24 jump out, cruising to the line alongside a racefit Heuristic who has since ran 2nd in a MDN. She looks a lovely mover and while kept under wraps, she relaxes nicely and looks to have a motor under the hood so she’s a filly we’ll be keeping a very close eye on when she debuts.

 
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BLACKBOOK RUNNERS - TIPS SUMMARY

Runners

Confidence - Comments

Seymour, Race 3

#15 TORONADO ROUGE (10) - M Price & M Kent Jnr

Low/Medium.

Hoping Tom Stockdale doesn't waste much time here and goes forward from barrier 10 to either lead or sit outside the leader where she can then travel into it and show that turn of foot late. The barrier is a query.


Not surprised to see Capre Omnia as favourite following his debut run but Surfy Pete came out and ran horribly at his next start, so the form is iffy.

Not convinced The Cross is anything special so happy to risk him.

The rest of the field will need to improve a bit to win this.


This filly's jump outs have been super ahead of her resumption so happy to be with her here and betting, albeit not super confident - playing ½ now at the $6 and the other ½ at SP, unsure if she gets backed in or not.

Cranbourne, Race 1

#9 RED DATES (3) - L & T Corstens

Medium.

This filly's jump outs were super and there is no secret that the Extreme Choice's have been flying, so it's hard not to like her here.


Drawn beautifully here and think she gets a lovely run on speed where she'll be hard to beat so happy to be with her. This is certainly a winnable race.

Last Updated: 8:00am AEDT on Friday, 14th April 2023.

 
STAKING

We know that everyone takes a different approach to their staking, which is why we don't delve into specific staking for each of our runners and we leave how you stake and bet our runners completely up to the individual.


Personally, we have followed different staking systems over the years to fine tune our own punting, but have found that the most profitable approach is to follow a "Collect system".


This system means that the punter (us) bets on the win only (no place bet) to collect 4% of our bank on every BlackBook runner we have. To begin, you need to select a starting bank - as an example, a starting bank of $10,000 will see us betting to collect $400 (4%) on each runner.

If a runner is $2, we will bet $200 @2 to collect $400.

If a runner is $20, we will bet $20 @20 to collect $400.

If a runner is $3.50, we will bet ~$114 @3.50 to collect ~$400.


We highly recommend having a read of the below PDF document from Dan O'Sullivan in regard to the Six Rules to Increase Profit, Staking like a Professional and Punting As An Investment (see here):

BetSmart
.pdf
Download PDF • 920KB

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