BlackBook - Friday, 13 May 2022

Please see below for our #BlackBook runner comments for Friday, 13 May 2022. The runner's highlighted are our #BlackBook runners (the key runners of focus), while those included in the 'other' section of each race are additional runner's that have jumped out well enough to be worth noting. Our figures and benchmark ratings are from PuntingForm.

CLICK HERE TO SEE OUR BLACKBOOK SUMMARY

GEELONG - Race 8

OTHER

#4 OPPOSING was scratched during the week, likely due to the wet tracks, electing to head back to the jump outs for a third time where he finished a very close 2nd in Heat 8 on Apr 22 in the second fastest time of the morning. He’s had those previous Mar 25 and Apr 8 jump outs and certainly looks primed to debut for Lindsay Park now. Big watch in a BM64 first up.

*went to the line alongside Runaway River in this latest jump out, that runner winning a MDN first up by 1.75L*

CRANBOURNE - Race 3

#10 SEYDOUX (4) - J Conlan

SEYDOUX was coming off an 11-week let up following the one run over 1000m at Flemington where she finished 5th by 5.2L to Madame Du Gast where Elite Icon (2nd) has won a MDN and BM64 since and Silly Salmon (3rd) has won a MDN since. She resumed in Heat 8 on Apr 5 over the 950m where she won in the fastest time of the morning (56.43s vs the day’s average of 57.65s) comfortably ahead of Red On Red and Dubai Nights, both of whom have broken their maidens. Blinkers were listed as a gear change, but the 3yo filly didn’t have them on as she led from start to finish here in impressive fashion. She’s a big watch when she gets back to the races from this let up.

As mentioned after her Apr 5 jump out win, SEYDOUX furthered her claims with a win over 900m in Heat 13 on Apr 27 and looks to be a filly we need to follow first up. She’s had the 1x run since August 2021, a 5th up the straight at Flemington where she was 5.2L behind Madame Du Gast where Elite Icon (2nd) has won a MDN and BM64 since and Silly Salmon (3rd) has won a MDN since. Doesn’t look like she had the blinkers on in either of her jump outs as she’s led from start to finish in both. Big watch first up, expecting her to go well with some nice form and nice jump outs.

OTHER RUNNERS - NSW

Scone, Race 2

#16 THE ROCKWELL SCALE (6) - Matthew Dunn

Apr 22 (Warwick Farm) - clocked 48.18s vs days average of 48.75s - second classy all the way win for this 3yo gelding, showed good gate speed and went to the line under a hold - was a $150k buy - was 3rd on debut to Fluctuate who then won a CL1 at next start - one to watch first up in his second career prep.

OTHER RUNNERS - NZ

Matamata, Race 4

#6 MATTER OF HONOUR (15) - T Pike

A potentially nice 2YO colt by Pride Of Dubai here for Tony Pike that has won 2x trials ahead of his debut. His first trial on Apr 5 was over 800m, winning in 46.44s vs the days average of 46.47s (over 4x trials). The 2nd placed horse was Medina who has since ran 2nd in a 2YO Handicap race, beaten only 0.2L. His second trial on Apr 19 over 1000m was his most impressive, winning eased down late in 1:00.53, which was below the day’s average of 59.73s but he did it easily enough.

*barrier 15 makes it very hard, but expect him to go forward and be the one to take some catching*

BLACKBOOK SUMMARY

Runners	Confidence - Comments
Matamata, Race 4
#6 MATTER OF HONOUR (15) - T Pike	Medium - barrier is the worry, but he looks talented so can entertain something on him.
Scone, Race 2
#16 THE ROCKWELL SCALE (6) - M Dunn	Low.
Geelong, Race 8
#4 OPPOSING (11) - B & JD Hayes	Medium - happy to bet at the $8 on TopSport.
Cranbourne, Race 3
#10 SEYDOUX (4) - J Conlan	Medium - see below.

Cranbourne, Race 3 - SEYDOUX

The best last start rating of the race is SEYDOUX with +0.5 from that first up run at Flemington. The best peak rating of the race is -2.7, which is also SEYDOUX from her debut run at Sandown. Both of these ratings coming first up and both over 1000m. She's first up here, over 1000m and drawn barrier 4 on the back of some lovely jump outs - it sets up really well for her.

She needs to go forward from the barrier, as she can't get caught back over only 1000m at Cranbourne when it's wet. Dangers wise, THETOYBOY will likely lead and is a 2YO against the older horses and we're usually happy to risk the 2YO's this early (not so much in June/July) while GIRASOL jumped out well ahead of Alison Road (since 2nd and 4th in MDN's) but only had the 1x JO and it was over a month ago.

She looks worth a bet - playing SP.

Results (Aug 2020 to Today):

'Highlighted' Runners:

660x runners | 198x winners (30%) & 208x placings (62%)

Ave Betfair SP | $8.33 W & $2.31 P

'Other' Runners:

759x runners | 170x winners (22%) & 209x placings (50%)

Ave Betfair SP | $13.09 W & $3.10 P

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NOTES

Confidence levels will be as follows:

Low = not keen to bet.
Low/Medium = can win but not confident - small bet (if any at all).
Medium = one of the main winning chances - can bet.
High = very good winning chance - keen to have a bet.
Special = very keen, should be winning.

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