Please see below for our #BlackBook runner comments for Friday, 13 January 2023. All #BlackBook runners come from our weekly reviews and our split into two categories - these are are summarised in our "BlackBook Runners - Tips Summary" with our confidence and thoughts. We have also included some runners in our "BlackBook Runners - Watchlist" that are those worth keeping in mind if you're playing the race. For information on our staking, see here.
GEELONG - Race 1
While Heat 3 on Dec 23 featured the likes of Zion and Crosshaven filling in the minor placings, the winner was a 1-start maiden in #1 BIG WATCH and he is exactly that first up this prep. Thought he looked good in his Dec 9 jump out where he just cruised to the line, but he was given a much more solid hit out in this jump out where he led and was put under pressure in the straight, holding off some of those handy gallopers. We know he has a turn of foot from his debut, finishing 3rd to Boogie Dancer and Jenny Jerome where he clocked the second fastest L200m of the meeting and ran straight past subsequent winners in Commodity and Freeways. Expecting him to be running very well first up this prep.
#8 SASSY ANNA was only fair in her Dec 2 jump out, but took improvement into Heat 1 on Dec 9, cruising to and through the line when finishing 2nd to Naboo Star, albeit in the slowest time for the morning. She’s got lovely form from her debut now too, finishing 2nd to Shalaman by only 0.8L where she clocked the 5th fastest L200m of the meeting. Now a 3yo filly, she looks to have come back improved but her first jump out and slow time here has us cautious, so one to monitor.
GEELONG - Race 2
#4 SIGNAL looks to be flying ahead of his return to the races, winning a 750m jump out on Dec 23 prior to taking out Heat 12 on Jan 4 easily in the clear fastest time of the morning over 900m. He was a clear class above here, sitting outside the leader throughout but leaving him behind in the straight as he cruised to the line to win with heaps in hand. He’s ran well at both first up runs, being a moral beat at Yarra Valley on debut (we were on) and getting ran over late first up last prep, so expect him to be running well again first up this prep and on the back of these jump outs, we can follow him.
GEELONG - Race 8
#6 LORD GOLDBERG hasn’t been seen since running 4th in a 3200m Hurdle race back in May 2021, but he’s now put together two lovely jump outs with the latest an all the way win over 1000m in Heat 11 on Jan 3 where he led and railed like a greyhound to kick away and win very comfortably. He was surprisingly very good over the short distances considering his long distance form. He could run a cheeky race at a huge price over 1400m/1600m first/second up.
CRANBOURNE - Race 3
#1 CRADLE OF LIFE finished last and second last in a pair of trials in QLD back in November where he was ordinary, but he came down to VIC and was a superb winner of Heat 2 on Jan 4 over the 1200m. The 3yo colt went to the rear of the field from the widest barrier where he just cruised out the back before peeling out wide and really going to and through the line, pushed out late to win but still with a bit in hand. A son of Written Tycoon that was a $300k purchase back in 2021, we can keep an eye on him for his debut.
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BLACKBOOK RUNNERS - TIPS SUMMARY
Confidence - Comments
Geelong, Race 1
#1 BIG WATCH (3) - M Moroney
Loved his jump outs and love the form from his debut.
He's the clear horse to beat and draws for a beautiful run in transit from barrier 3. If he gets clear air late, he will be hard to hold out and we want to be with him. He's our on top selection and main bet.
#8 SASSY ANNA (8) - M, W & J Hawkes
She ran well first up behind Shanghai Venture where 3rd (Mighty Sapphire) and 8th (Awol) have both since won. She gets Oli on board here but is drawn a touch wide so may get trapped a bit wide again.
She is the main danger to Big Watch so we'll have a saver bet on her to breakeven.
Geelong, Race 2
#4 SIGNAL (1) - M Laurie
Hoping D Moor takes him forward and hopefully gets the lead, if not, he should be stalking the leaders.
His jump outs have been super and like the 1143m for him first up although he does lack the race fitness that the other two in the market have.
He looks hard to beat here and keen to be with him.
Geelong, Race 8
#6 LORD GOLDBERG (3) - A Bobbin
This is a low confidence bet and we'll be playing him at the SP and looking for a bigger price late, but his JO's were super and he's going to lead from barrier 3, so he'll be in this a long way and can give some sort of sight first up...
Playing late at the SP, want a bigger price.
Cranbourne, Race 3
#1 CRADLE OF LIFE (2) - R Laming
Tipped late via Telegram, happy to play and backing at the SP.
BLACKBOOK RUNNERS - WATCHLIST
Geelong, Race 3
#5 HIGHLAND FALCON (3) - M Freedman
BlackBook jump out comments:
HIGHLAND FALCON was beaten a long way in a previous two jump outs, but took up a more forward position in his third jump out as he led them up along the rail in Heat 5 on Jan 3 before showing a nice kick and fight back late as he was challenged, winning quite well in the end. He looks as though he needs some distance and his breeding suggests that, being by Highland Reel and out of a mare that won some black type races over 1700m-2000m. He’ll likely be one that will improve as he gets deeper into his debut prep.
No bet recommended.
Cranbourne, Race 3
#1 CRADLE OF LIFE (2) - R Laming
BlackBook jump out comments:
CRADLE OF LIFE finished last and second last in a pair of trials in QLD back in November where he was ordinary, but he came down to VIC and was a superb winner of Heat 2 on Jan 4 over the 1200m. The 3yo colt went to the rear of the field from the widest barrier where he just cruised out the back before peeling out wide and really going to and through the line, pushed out late to win but still with a bit in hand. A son of Written Tycoon that was a $300k purchase back in 2021, we can keep an eye on him for his debut.
TBC - will be updated in Telegram.
Last Updated: 8:23am (QLD) on Friday, 13th January 2023.
Overall Results by Category (since Aug 2020):
'Highlighted' Runners: 708x runners | 218x winners (31%) & 227x placings (63%)
Ave Betfair SP | $8.06 WIN $2.28 PLC
'Other' Runners: 1134x runners | 279x winners (25%) & 313x placings (52%)
Ave Betfair SP | $12.08 WIN $2.99 PLC
Overall Results by Confidence (since Aug 2022):
High Confidence: 47x runners | 28x wins (60%) & 13x placings (87%)
Medium Confidence: 96x runners | 40x wins (42%) & 29x placings (72%)
Low/Medium Confidence: 91x runners | 20x wins (22%) & 27x placings (52%)
Low Confidence: 18x runners | 4x wins (22%) & 5x placings (50%)
We know that everyone takes a different approach to their staking, which is why we don't delve into specific staking for each of our runners and we leave how you stake and bet our runners completely up to the individual.
Personally, we have followed different staking systems over the years to fine tune our own punting, but have found that the most profitable approach is to follow a "Collect system".
This system means that the punter (us) bets on the win only (no place bet) to collect 4% of our bank on every BlackBook runner we have. To begin, you need to select a starting bank - as an example, a starting bank of $10,000 will see us betting to collect $400 (4%) on each runner.
If a runner is $2, we will bet $200 @2 to collect $400.
If a runner is $20, we will bet $20 @20 to collect $400.
If a runner is $3.50, we will bet ~$114 @3.50 to collect ~$400.
We highly recommend having a read of the below PDF document from Dan O'Sullivan in regard to the Six Rules to Increase Profit, Staking like a Professional and Punting As An Investment (see here):