BlackBook - Friday, 12 November 2021

Please see below for our #BlackBook runner comments for Friday, 12 November 2021. The runner's highlighted are our #BlackBook runners (the key runners of focus), while those included in the 'other' section of each race are additional runner's that have jumped out well enough to be worth noting. Our figures and benchmark ratings are from PuntingForm.


KYNETON - Race 2

#8 JEZOULENKO (8) - M Ellerton & S Zahra

Starting to build a bit of an opinion of JEZOULENKO and think she’ll go alright on debut. In the second fastest time of the morning, she led the whole way to win Heat 5 on Nov 1 ahead of impressive maiden winner Jump The Broom who was put under more pressure throughout and had the rest of the field covered. She also led the whole way in an Oct 1 synthetic jump out too that caught our eye as she finished in front of the 65-rated Rousseau and Fashion Avenue (who then won by 1.5L first up). The 3yo Zoustar filly has shown talent at the jump outs and now just needs to bring it on debut, where we expect her to run well.


MOONEE VALLEY - Race 3

OTHER

#8 MASTERFUL made up a lot of ground in a jump out back on May 17 despite being put under no pressure at any stage, he did it with ease there. Put away following that, the 3yo Deep Field colt sat on speed in Heat 8 on Oct 11 (orange) before cruising to the line down the middle of the track in testing conditions. He looked to have a bit left to offer and is one to watch for another bit of work prior to his debut.

Heat 5 on Nov 1 was the second fastest heat of the morning over 800m, and the first two across the line had a bit on the rest of the field and think they’re both worth following. #8 MASTERFUL was previously mentioned following an Oct 11 jump out alongside subsequent maiden winner Corvino and put in a nice performance to win this heat despite being put under pressure and being ridden out. Think he’s capable of going well in a maiden on debut.

 
OUR THOUGHTS

Kyneton, Race 1

Ratings wise, the best peak benchmark rating of any horse in this race is +7.3, so he won't have to be a star to win this as the only debutant in the race.


The one to watch here is certainly MYSTIC REALM who only had the one jump out, but it was a really good hard held all the way win over the 800m. Craig Newitt booked to ride shows some intention that we can probably expect him to go straight to the front from the wide draw and attempt to lead all the way. He would've been a BlackBook runner but we wanted to see one more jump out, instead he debuts here off only the one.


The scratchings have really decimated this race... he really should just be winning this now. Hopefully we're on the the $5.50 that was available on Bet365 and TAB in early markets. The $5.50 on TAB becomes $3.03 and the $5.50 on Bet365 becomes $2.97.

If you didn't get on, we're certainly making use of our UniBet promotion and happy to still be with him.


Kyneton, Race 2 - JEZOULENKO

Another race with no stand outs, ratings wise, from the raced horses. The best peak benchmark rating is +5.6 and the best last start benchmark rating is +8.1.The scratching of our other runner GOLD GLAMOUR certainly helps and we're keen to be with JEZOULENKO. Her jump outs were super and like the draw of barrier 8 - she looks speedy and we think she can make a winning debut here (plus, it won't take anything special to win based on ratings).


Another one we played in the early markets, hopefully we were able to lock in the $4 which comes into $3.72 (Bet365) or $3.48 (TAB) after the deductions from the scratching of GOLD GLAMOUR and others. If you're not on yet, $3+ looks the price to take and we can still get $3.40 on Bet365 this morning. JEZOULENKO is a big winning chance and the one to beat for us.


Moonee Valley, Race 3 - MASTERFUL

MASTERFUL has jumped out well and won’t have to be a superstar to run well here. Ratings wise, SEACOLE brings in the best last start benchmark rating at +3.9 with HALLOWED GROUND second at +6.4 having led on debut at the home track but faded badly. Interestingly, there is a meeting at Kyneton today but he comes into town for a hard race, so suspect that have a bit of an opinion of him.


SEACOLE is the one to beat for us, but can certainly see MASTERFUL running well here on debut. EXTREME STEP is the other one, scratched from a very winnable race during the week to run here and just scrapes into the field.


There is a stack of rain expect throughout the day, with this race not until 7:15pm. Check back at 6:45pm, for an update but for now, we'll have no plays.


UPDATE: few late scratchings due to the weather - we're going to have a small low confidence play on him. The $5 looks good enough to have a play and there aren't really any stand outs - he can run well and the price is alright.


Canterbury, Race 2 - MAROONIYAH (Michael, Wayne & John Hawkes)

We've seen form from the trial with Just Strolling (who was 2nd) since running 2nd in a MDN. Our original #BlackBook are as follows:

  • Oct 22 (Rosehill) - super impressive, nice time for the morning and an easy 2.6L win that could’ve been a lot further if she was asked for an effort instead of being eased down late - she sat outside the leader here until the bend where she then gave a kick and put up lengths within a matter of strides - half sister to Shotmaker, she goes well.


Canterbury, Race 3 - CARARTIE (John O'Shea)

Our original #BlackBook are as follows:

  • Oct 29 (Randwick) - this was a huge run and win - jumped from widest barrier and was taken to last, sitting at the back and cruising before making her move around the bend and down the outside in the straight, showing an impressive turn of foot to go over the top and win - she looked to be a class above this lot - 1045m trial here, might be best over a bit further this upcoming preparation.


OUR BETS

As a rule of thumb, our new 'units' system will be based on the following staking plan:

  • 0.25 units is a speculation ('spec') bet at a bigger price.

  • 0.50 units to 1.00 units is a low confidence bet.

  • 1.00 units to 2.00 units is a medium confidence bet.

  • 2.50 units to 3.00 units is a high confidence bet.

  • 5.00 units is the maximum bet and is a 'special', or a very high confidence bet.

Total outlay is 3.75 units.


No bets on our NSW BlackBook runners.


Kyneton, Race 1

MYSTIC REALM ~ 1.50 units WIN @ $5.50* (TAB/Bet365 on Thu)

*comes into $3.03 (TAB) or $2.97 (Bet365) after deductions.


Kyneton, Race 2

JEZOULENKO ~ 1.50 units WIN @ $4.00* (TAB/Bet365 on Thu)

*comes into $3.48 (TAB) or $3.72 (Bet365) after deductions.


Moonee Valley, Race 3

MASTERFUL ~ 0.75 units WIN @ $5.00 (TopSport at 5:30pm)


Overall: +7.13 units (since 21 Oct, 2021).


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