Please see below for our #BlackBook runner comments for Friday, 11 November 2022. All #BlackBook runners come from our weekly reviews and our split into two categories - these are are summarised in our "BlackBook Runners - Summary" with our confidence and thoughts. We have also included some runners in our "BlackBook Runners - Watchlist" that are those worth keeping in mind if you're playing the race. For information on our staking, see here.
MOONEE VALLEY - Race 2
#7 WONDERFUL TONIGHT (3) - M, W & J Hawkes
WONDERFUL TONIGHT is certainly back and she looks in super order. She’s put together two lovely jump outs now, a win on Oct 7 followed up by a close 2nd in Heat 7 on Oct 14 where they clocked the third fastest time of the morning. There is no doubt she’s got plenty of gate speed, jumping straight to the front in both of her jump outs now, going to the line under strong holds in both. As mentioned last week, her debut 3rd reads super not considering it was behind Zouzarella (1st) and Zapateo (2nd), so there is no doubt she has talent and it’ll be a matter of whether she’ll be ready to go first up after such a long spell. A $450k I Am Invincible mare, she looks in good order and we think she’ll be ready to go first up.
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BLACKBOOK RUNNERS - SUMMARY
Confidence - Comments
Moonee Valley, Race 2
#7 WONDERFUL TONIGHT (3) - M, W & J Hawkes
She was a beaten short-priced favourite first up after a long spell and while it was disappointing, a few good yard judges said she had a lot of condition to come and think that run will really bring her on now second up.
The 4th horse from that run (Girl) has since won while 3rd (Shanghai Venture) was 4th in that same race but very unlucky - there was a huge 5L gap to 5th that day and the run rated really well.
She sticks at 1200m second up, draw's beautifully with barrier 3 and it will be no disadvantage to be up on speed at this track. She will run a big race now second up and thought $3+ was good to look at, especially considering she was $1.60 SP first up.
BLACKBOOK RUNNERS - WATCHLIST
Seymour, Race 2
#10 HIGHLAND GIRL (14) - M Laurie
She was a BB runner prior to her first up run where she ran 2nd to a smart Pretty Tavi. She then ran 4th second up behind Get Up Girl (ran 3rd in LR race since), The Unicorn (won by 3.5L next start) and Morpheus Bragi (won by 1.5L next start). She then ran 2nd to Corner Off third up, putting a 3.3L gap on 3rd that day, so she's been very unlucky with who she's come up against this prep.
Fourth up now, this has to be her race... drawn horribly but she will be at peak fitness and with that form on the board, she should be winning a race like this. Think the ~$2.50 available this morning is good enough to get involved - we'll be ½ staking as she's not an actual BlackBook runner.
Last Updated: 8:23am on Friday, 11th November 2022.
Overall Results by Category (since Aug 2020):
'Highlighted' Runners: 697x runners | 214x winners (31%) & 222x placings (63%)
Ave Betfair SP | $8.14 WIN $2.29 PLC
'Other' Runners: 1057x runners | 254x winners (24%) & 289x placings (51%)
Ave Betfair SP | $12.14 WIN $3.02 PLC
Overall Results by Confidence (since Aug 2022):
High Confidence: 35x runners | 23x wins (66%) & 7x placings (86%)
Medium Confidence: 63x runners | 28x wins (44%) & 17x placings (71%)
Low/Medium Confidence: 55x runners | 9x wins (16%) & 18x placings (49%)
Low Confidence: 11x runners | 3x wins (27%) & 3x placings (55%)
We know that everyone takes a different approach to their staking, which is why we don't delve into specific staking for each of our runners and we leave how you stake and bet our runners completely up to the individual.
Personally, we have followed different staking systems over the years to fine tune our own punting, but have found that the most profitable approach is to follow a "Collect system".
This system means that the punter (us) bets on the win only (no place bet) to collect 4% of our bank on every BlackBook runner we have. To begin, you need to select a starting bank - as an example, a starting bank of $10,000 will see us betting to collect $400 (4%) on each runner.
If a runner is $2, we will bet $200 @2 to collect $400.
If a runner is $20, we will bet $20 @20 to collect $400.
If a runner is $3.50, we will bet ~$114 @3.50 to collect ~$400.
We highly recommend having a read of the below PDF document from Dan O'Sullivan in regard to the Six Rules to Increase Profit, Staking like a Professional and Punting As An Investment (see here):