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BlackBook - Friday, 10 February 2023

Please see below for our #BlackBook runner comments for Friday, 10 February 2023. All #BlackBook runners come from our weekly reviews and our split into two categories - these are are summarised in our "BlackBook Runners - Tips Summary" with our confidence and thoughts. We have also included some runners in our "BlackBook Runners - Watchlist" that are those worth keeping in mind if you're playing the race. For information on our staking, see here.

 
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BLACKBOOK RUNNERS - TIPS SUMMARY

Runners

Confidence - Comments

Colac, Race 5

#3 BELDIVIAN (6) - M & L Kavanagh

Low/Medium.

In the four subsequent starts following his debut win in August 2021, he’s beaten 1x runner home as he finished 8th of 8, 14th of 14, 11th of 12 and 8th of 8. He has been nothing short of ordinary since his debut win.


Dissimilar to his race form, he has won two jump outs ahead of his return, the first on Jan 13 and a more recent jump out on Jan 27 alongside Jump The Broom.

Wonder if he can not only beat his second runner home in 5x starts, but also win a BM58 first up on the back of those two slick jump out wins?


Thought he’d be better than a sub-$4 second favourite though so not entirely sure what to do at the price but am expecting him to drift as doubt they back him late with that sort of form (despite the JO's) - we'll wait and look to play him late once he gets out in price.


If he gets into ~$3, then he's a no bet.

Last Updated: 8:08am AEDT on Friday, 10th February 2023.

 
STAKING

We know that everyone takes a different approach to their staking, which is why we don't delve into specific staking for each of our runners and we leave how you stake and bet our runners completely up to the individual.


Personally, we have followed different staking systems over the years to fine tune our own punting, but have found that the most profitable approach is to follow a "Collect system".


This system means that the punter (us) bets on the win only (no place bet) to collect 4% of our bank on every BlackBook runner we have. To begin, you need to select a starting bank - as an example, a starting bank of $10,000 will see us betting to collect $400 (4%) on each runner.

If a runner is $2, we will bet $200 @2 to collect $400.

If a runner is $20, we will bet $20 @20 to collect $400.

If a runner is $3.50, we will bet ~$114 @3.50 to collect ~$400.


We highly recommend having a read of the below PDF document from Dan O'Sullivan in regard to the Six Rules to Increase Profit, Staking like a Professional and Punting As An Investment (see here):

BetSmart
.pdf
Download PDF • 920KB

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