BlackBook - Friday, 10 December 2021

Please see below for our #BlackBook runner comments for Friday, 10 December 2021. The runner's highlighted are our #BlackBook runners (the key runners of focus), while those included in the 'other' section of each race are additional runner's that have jumped out well enough to be worth noting. Our figures and benchmark ratings are from PuntingForm.


GEELONG - Race 2

OTHER

Few to follow from Heat 8 on Nov 23 that were having their first trial/jump out and performed well. The 2nd horse, #11 STORMY MISTRESS, is a half-sister to Streets Of Avalon and Orlando Grove (who ran 2nd at $41 on debut before winning second up). This was her second bit of work after a Nov 17 jump out at Pakenham where she had to close from the back - she looks a run on type with some talent like her siblings.


GEELONG - Race 3

OTHER

#2 CROSSFIRE ROAD closed well over the top of Sessions Road in Heat 12 on Nov 26 following her quiet Nov 15 jump out. She was put under some pressure in this heat to get going, but thought she responded well enough and closed well late, hitting the line hard. She’s worth keeping in mind.


GEELONG - Race 4

#1 AMALFI SPRITZ (7) - M Cumani

We’ve previously had an opinion of AMALFI SPRITZ before his last preparation. He was lame first up and coughing before finishing a close 0.6L 4th second up. He was given more time and now gelded, resuming in Heat 6 on Nov 23 with a quiet but nice bit of work. He’s one to keep an eye on into another jump out - him resuming gelded is a big gear change.

This is exactly what we wanted to see from AMALFI SPRITZ in his second jump out to really give us confidence he’s come back in good order as a gelding. He had a quiet bit of work on Nov 22 alongside subsequent winner Kyokushin, but his win in Heat 7 on Dec 1 was a very impressive bit of work to suggest he’s come back super. He pretty much led from start to finish and was easily able to put a couple lengths on the field when given some slight pushes in the straight before being eased down late. He’s talented, he just needs to put it together on race day now and this looks like the prep he’ll do it. Keen to follow.


OTHER

#11 WHAT A SHAM looked super as she finished 3rd in Heat 8 on Nov 16 with Patrick Payne himself on board where she was super hard held throughout. The 4yo mare is a 5 start maiden, but hasn’t finished more than 4.4L off the winner and has always been competitive. This was her second jump out ahead of her return, and she looks to be in good order.


CRANBOURNE - Race 1

OTHER

She was ran over late in a Nov 17 Pakenham jump out but was never asked for an effort. #9 MISS PIPER then gave nothing a chance to overran her in Heat 6 on Dec 1 as she went to the front and bolted in to win in the third fastest time of the morning by a massive margin. She comes down from QLD after four starts as a 2yo for only one placing, that placing coming in an 800m maiden at Warwick, which makes us very worried that she’s a 800m specialist, hence the good jump outs. Keep her in mind on debut, but treading very carefully.


CRANBOURNE - Race 3

OTHER

Few to follow from Heat 8 on Nov 23 that were having their first trial/jump out and performed well. Even the 3rd horse, #8 TEMLEH, who’s an 4yo 8-start maiden but this was a nice bit of work after travelling wide throughout.


CRANBOURNE - Race 4

OTHER

#5 JENNI ESPRIT was clearly the pick of the bunch in Heat 5 on Nov 15 despite finishing 1L or so off the winner, Obi. Now with Enver Jusufovic after previously being with M Laurie and L Oliver, she’s been disappointing in three runs since breaking her maiden on debut. Encouraging return here having travelled wide throughout. Can expect another jump out before resuming in a BM58.

A pair of nice jump outs now for #5 JENNI ESPRIT, who looks to be travelling well ahead of her return for Enver Jusufovic and we’d love to see her pop up in a BM58 first up. She got the better of a pushed out Hassett in Heat 9 on Nov 22 with a gap to 3rd, but that galloper is unplaced in four career starts. Regardless, she looked to move nicely and clocked the second fastest 800m time of the morning too. Looks in good order.


MOONEE VALLEY - Race 3

#3 MATAO MA (1) - M Price & M Kent Jnr

Resuming gelded (we believe), MATAO MA looks to be travelling well enough to be competitive first up following a jump out win on Nov 23 and then again in Heat 7 on Nov 29 where he clocked the fastest 800m time of the morning in the process. He jumped well, took up the lead with an un-raced Bedggood runner where they kicked away in the straight and put a gap on 3rd. He was under significantly less pressure than the inside horse, albeit with a little bit of pressure himself, and looked to respond well and kicked back nicely. His last start 2nd to Prince Alexander reads well now, that runner since placing at Listed level. He was a $220k Magic Millions purchase and is a half-brother to the Group 1 winning mare Bonham, so there is no shortage of expectations for him and they’ll be hoping he can live up to them, which he might now as a gelding. Will note that he might be one to follow as he gets out in trip, his best run last prep coming at 1400m after runs at 1000m and 1200m, which is something to be mindful of first up.


OTHER

#6 TREPORTI has had the two runs this preparation being 3rd to Invincible Caviar and Xtra Gear (gapping 4th by 1.5L that day) and 2nd to Obfuscation with super form coming from the race including 3rd (Cerberus) coming out and winning a Listed race at Morphetville, 4th (Kwoi Hoi) since winning MDN by 4L and 6th (Balsamic Vinegar) since winning. He has had an 8-week freshen up because of a key change in him becoming a gelding, jumping out in Heat 5 on Oct 27 to tick the legs over before resuming as a gelding and expect him to be very hard to beat regardless of what maiden he resumes in.

Keen to follow #6 TREPORTI now as a gelding. We mentioned the super form he had after an Oct 27 jump out, heading back to the jump outs to take out Heat 8 on Nov 12 where he was ridden with a bit more urgency and looked to respond well. With that form behind Invincible Caviar and Obfuscation along with some nice jump outs and the key gear change of becoming a gelding, he looks like he’ll be very hard to beat first up.

 
OUR THOUGHTS

Apologies, lots of information to take in. Tried to note down everything as we did the form - feel free to skip to the end to see our bets and then read the analysis after as there is a lot of 'fluff'.


Geelong, Race 2 - STORMY MISTRESS

Scratched from a tougher race on Wednesday at Sandown (due to the barrier), running here instead and draw's a more favourable barrier 8 of 11. Zac Spain was booked to ride on Wednesday and is booked to ride here, one of two rides before he heads off to Moonee Valley.


Thought Dan Stackhouse riding BIOLUMINESCENCE over the Hayes horse MAGIC SOUND was interesting, especially with MAGIC SOUND beating home subsequent winner Hokolesqua in a recent Flemington jump out. ANTIPODES and IMMINENT RISK deserve to be up there as well, but didn't think there was any real stand out in the field. Our other runner in WOLFLANDS was scratched.


As a result, we think they've missed STORMY MISTRESS a little and she looks over the odds and we're happy to have a little spec to see how she goes. Not a stack of confidence, but we want to (and are happy to) have something on at the price.


Geelong, Race 3 - CROSSFIRE ROAD

Nice little maiden here that we're happy to leave and have no bets in.


THE GLOBE has nice form, especially with Along The River subsequently winning on Wednesday but at the same time, Game To Love was disappointing. JEZOULENKO looks ready to peak now third up with barrier 2 and brings in the best last start rating at +7.0 with THE GLOBE second at +7.5. Would think one of those two win but the debutants in MASAKO and CROSSFIRE ROAD aren't without a chance. Should be an alright race.


Geelong, Race 4 - AMALFI SPRITZ (+ WHAT A SHAM)

Quite keen - he was a Top Performer for us on Twitter, and we're keen to be with him here first up.

Ratings wise, his three career runs have rated +8.2, +4.4 and +6.1. In comparison to this field, the best last start rating is from KEEP ON FIGHTING at +5.2 so if he runs to any of his three career runs, then he'll be competitive here. Adding that he resumes gelded on the back of two very nice jump outs, especially the latest one, he should be coming back improved and expect him to go well.


Very glad YONCE was scratched as she looked to be the only real danger. WHAT A SHAM has jumped out well and brings in the fourth best last start rating at +9.1 and does have some better ratings at +6.7 and +7.9 that would have her competitive here, but don't think she has the class of AMALFI SPRITZ.

Can't have KEPPEL BAY on her last jump out, which was over a month ago on Nov 1 when beaten a distant 3rd. No jump out or trial for LAVEE STAR is a little bit suss and he did start $2.40 first up last preparation but was disappointing. Race drops away from these and think it is very winnable for AMALFI SPRITZ.


For those that were quick, he opened $4.20 (Bet365) and then $4.00 (TAB) - a few deductions on those prices now but they're still $3+. At the price available this morning, we're still happy to bet and keen that he wins.


Cranbourne, Race 1 - MISS PIPER

A 1000m race at Cranbourne is perfect for her and with barrier 4, she looks well placed. Just very worried about the '800m specialist' tag that has so often burnt us and really, she should've won any of her four career races if she was any good. She might have come back improved now as a 3YO but too many question marks for us to be playing.


Cranbourne, Race 3 - TEMLEH

She may get better over further, but the 1400m first up is a lovely kick off point. He's only had the one trial/jump out, so certainly a query on fitness and it wouldn't surprise to see him need the run.

Stormy Mistress comes from the same trial and races earlier in the day so we can see how she goes before backing this gelding. Once Stormy Mistress runs at 1:45pm at Geelong (Race 2), we'll post an update on any play for this gelding - it'll be a small spec, if any at all.


Stormy Mistress was poor so happy to leave this one and have no bets.


Cranbourne, Race 4 - JENNI ESPRIT

Her debut run rated +3.6 but her last three runs have rated no better than +14.0... the debut run would be good enough to win this but the other three runs have her not even close and the debut run was back in December 2020. Now with Enver Jusufovic and resumes at the new home track on the back of some really nice jump outs - barrier 2 is a lovely draw as well.


Want to see her put together something on race day before getting involved, her last few runs have been nothing short of terrible - one to follow second up. No value in the ~$4.60 either to look at a spec bet - no bets.


Moonee Valley, Race 3 - MATAO MA (+ TREPORTI)

This was an alright maiden, but the scratchings of CITIZEN and TRANSFORMATION leave us with a clear two on top and they're both of our runners.


TREPORTI will be better for the first up run when resuming gelded. No surprise to see him bring in the best last start rating at +0.7 and would expect him to run well again here, especially from barrier 4 - he'll go forward and take some catching.


MATAO MA resumes gelded and with the tongue tie going on. The 1000m on debut was way too short with his other two runs rating -4.8 (over 1200m in the Showdown at Caulfield) and +4.2 (over 1400m). Suspect that he might be better as he steps up in trip later in this preparation but the 1200m first up looks a nice kick off point. The horse he went to the line with in his latest jump out was Ghumaama, who subsequently won by 1.8L on debut - they had a gap on 3rd that day. Would expect him to box seat from barrier 1.


Have decided that this looks a genuine two horse race - going to play TREPORTI and save on MATAO MA to breakeven as expecting one of those two to win. Think TREPORIT's benefit of race fitness will be the difference and although probably think MATAO MA might be the better horse of the two, he might be one that just wins second up.


We're effectively getting $2.03 odds for TREPORTI to win (instead of $2.70) with MATAO MA as security.


OUR BETS

As a rule of thumb, our new 'units' system will be based on the following staking plan:

  • 0.25 units is a speculation ('spec') bet at a bigger price.

  • 0.50 units to 1.00 units is a low confidence bet.

  • 1.00 units to 2.00 units is a medium confidence bet.

  • 2.50 units to 3.00 units is a high confidence bet.

  • 5.00 units is the maximum bet and is a 'special', or a very high confidence bet.

Total outlay is 3.25 units.


Geelong, Race 2

STORMY MISTRESS ~ 0.25 units WIN @ $13.00 (Bet365)


Geelong, Race 4

AMALFI SPRITZ ~ 3.00 units WIN @ $2.50 (TopSport, TAB & more)


Moonee Valley, Race 3

TREPORTI ~ 2.00 units WIN @ $2.70 (TAB & more)

MATAO MA ~ 1.35 units WIN @ $2.50 (TAB & more)


Overall: +8.96 units (since 21 Oct, 2021).


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