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BlackBook - Friday, 1 October 2021

Please see below for our #BlackBook runner comments for Friday, 1 October 2021. The runner's highlighted are our #BlackBook runners (the key runners of focus), while those included in the 'other' section of each race are additional runner's that have jumped out well enough to be worth noting. Our figures and benchmark ratings are from PuntingForm.

ECHUCA - Race 1

#3 EXTREME WARRIOR (5) - M Price & M Kent Jnr

We liked a pair of May jump outs by EXTREME WARRIOR, but he didn’t get to the races. Returning in Heat 8 on Sep 15 for his first jump out after another break, he looked a class above and showed he is a classy colt. The time wasn’t super, but it was a nice return none-the-less.

Two super jump outs now for EXTREME WARRIOR, going to the line with (and a lot better than) Sudoko in Heat 1 on Sep 21. If he pops up in a mid-week maiden, confident he’ll run extremely well.


#10 ZARINA BAY faded late in a Sep 8 but didn’t have the blinkers on. She’s clearly a better horse with the blinkers on, leading all the way in Heat 4 on Sep 23 to win ahead of Sweet Sixteen albeit in slowish time for the day. She had the one run as a 2YO but was put away after to return with these two jump outs. Not a standout, but nice bits of work.

ECHUCA - Race 2


#10 INEBRIATING had the one jump out prior to resuming, it was up the straight on Aug 9 and she beat home Excelida (since won BM70) and Treporti (since 3rd and 2nd in MDN’s) quite easily that day. She resumed at Morphetville and was poor, finishing 4th by 4.3L after sitting on speed from barrier 1. Back to the jump outs, she won Heat 12 on Sep 23 quite comfortably. She needs to improve, but this second up run with the jump out in between is worth following her into.


#1 DIO (11) - M, W & J Hawkes

Expecting DIO to be on a Guineas path, especially with his breeding as a full-brother to Sunlight. Had a really nice Aug 26 trial at Rosehill in the fastest of the day behind Nature Strip and come down to VIC with a super win in Heat 7 on Sep 3 (orange). He was poor in a Group 2 on debut but his last start 2nd to Scorched Earth (where they gapped 3rd by 3L) reads well now. He’s a real nice mover and hoping he pops up in a weaker mid-week race before going into town.

#5 LAFARGUE (10) - D O'Brien

LAFARGUE started $3.50 on debut at Flemington, managing a disappointing 6th but pulling up with a slow recovery in a forgive run. He’s been given 12-weeks since that run, returning up the straight in Heat 2 on Aug 9 (navy) and winning impressively in slick time with the addition of blinkers. As this was only his first jump out back, expect another bit of work before he resumes but he already looks to be improved after that break and with the gear change.



EXTREME WARRIOR brings in the clear best benchmark ratings and it's not even close. If he runs here and track isn't too bad, he should just win. ZARINA BAY might potentially be a saver but couldn't be backing her to win straight out, don't think she beats EXTREME WARRIOR.

EXTREME WARRIOR should just be winning. Hopefully a few got on the early markets and locked in some of the $2+ opening price or the $1.70 available last night.

He's short now at $1.40/$1.50 and probably too short to play - recommend using our bonus back offer on UniBet, even at the $1.50 it's worth it with the insurance. Monitor his price closer to the jump but doubt he gets out in price.

Echuca, Race 2 - INEBRIATING

Her last start run actually rates well for this, it's the best last start benchmark rating by a couple lengths. She's just a little short for us around the ~$2.15 mark, especially with barrier 13 of 13 over only 1000m.

Happy to let her go around at that price. Would've wanted at least $3, probably closer to $3.50 to look at playing her but not a stack of confidence (or desire) to be playing anyway. No bets for us.

Moonee Valley, Race 1 - DIO & LAFARGUE

Very happy to see PINSTRIPED run at Moe on Thursday instead, where he won by 5.5L...

LAFARGUE had one jump out on Aug 9 before resuming on Sep 17. Led that day and was just overran late and may have needed the run. Expect a stack of improvement second up.

DIO was first up in a stakes race up the straight (as probably expected) and just wasn't quite up to it. Drops back to maiden grade now and brings in the best last start benchmark rating with LAFARGUE bringing in the second best. The next best is a good 4-5L behind.

We initially were leaning towards weighting our bets towards DIO as our on top selection. He is still who we have on top but think LAFARGUE is a good chance as well and we'll look to play both.

We'll back LAFARGUE ($4.80 TopSport) as well as DIO ($5.50 TAB) for even returns. Medium confidence in this race - think one of these two win the race and are above the rest of the field.

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