BlackBook - Friday, 1 April 2022
Please see below for our #BlackBook runner comments for Friday, 1 April 2022. The runner's highlighted are our #BlackBook runners (the key runners of focus), while those included in the 'other' section of each race are additional runner's that have jumped out well enough to be worth noting. Our figures and benchmark ratings are from PuntingForm.
GEELONG - Race 1
#4 DON’T HESITATE is an expensive colt from an expensive family with China Horse Club and Newgate buying up this family year after year… they bought this colt in 2020 for $440k, buying his full-brother in 2021 for $350k (being the 2yo Calgary Stampede) and his half-brother by I Am Invincible in 2022 for $850k, which is usually a good sign. He was previously with Gai Waterhouse, winning some trials up in NSW before coming to the Freedman’s where he was very quiet in a Feb 16 jump out before cruising to victory in Heat 6 on Mar 16 with the blinkers on. Lovely win, one to keep an eye on for his debut.
#9 CRACKER BELLE was the pick of Heat 5 on Mar 22, the 4yo mare finishing 2nd after sitting in behind the speed along the fence and closing well once she got some room in the straight. She looked to have a lot more to give with the jockey not fully testing her at all in her first jump out back. One to keep an eye on.
CRANBOURNE - Race 2
It was a very slow heat, but #9 CAPITAL EXPRESS was very hard held throughout Heat 3 on Mar 25 as she sat outside the leader throughout. They clock 51.01s, significantly slower than the days average of 49.04s, but she looked to have more to give. She had a previous jump out on Jan 14 followed by a win on Jan 25 ahead of Lambda (who was 3rd first up in the Talindert) and Va Via (who then won at Sandown and was 4th in the Breeders). The 2yo filly is one to keep an eye on.
CRANBOURNE - Race 8
#11 SISTINE EXPLORER bolted in Heat 11 on Mar 22 in the fastest time of the morning, defeating My Boy Birmingham with ease. Talented filly.
OUR THOUGHTS - BETS
Bit of an annoying day - the main runner we were going to play has been scratched and the rest are very short. DON'T HESITATE ($1.35) and CAPITAL EXPRESS ($2.40) are both too short for us but look the ones to beat.
Cranbourne, Race 8 - SISTINE EXPLORER
Would think that a BM64 at Cranbourne on a Friday night is only the bottom of this filly's career as she looks destined for a lot better races than this. Her jump out was sizzling, and we know she flies fresh having won first up last preparation on the back of only the one jump out as well.
Barrier 2 is a lovely draw and Dean Holland only has the 2x rides at Cranbourne, suspect that she is the main reason he heads there.
Going to have just the 1x unit on her at the $2.70 available on TopSport this morning - would be wanting to take $2.50+ we think, otherwise she just gets a bit too short. The race isn't until 9:15pm so plenty of time to assess the market and shop around.
OUR THOUGHTS - NO BETS
Geelong, Race 1 - DON'T HESITATE
Mark Zahra heads to Geelong for just the one ride on this 3yo colt, who has jumped out beautifully and is drawn beautifully with barrier 2 to get a lovely run. He looks the one to beat here in a winnable race - certainly won't be taking sub-$1.35, let alone sub-$2 (if he was that price).
We'll be watching this race with no bets, way too short.
Cranbourne, Race 3
We were most likely going to have a small play on YULONG JET here with barrier 1 over the 1000m at Cranbourne, it seemed an ideal set up, albeit only a small play as SUNDAY YUM CHA is the one to beat.
SUNDAY YUM CHA debuted at Flemington up the straight and was 3.5L off Profiteer and Ranveer (despite pulling up lame) with the run rating -2.4 and is the clear best rating of anyone in this race - she's a short priced favourite and deserves to be as she's the clear one to beat if she can replicate anything remotely close to that debut performance.
We'll be tweeting each and every time the BlackBook is posted with bets or finalised for the day from now on so no one misses an update and can make the most of early odds when we're playing - head to Twitter (click here) if you're not already following us.
As a rule of thumb, our new 'units' system will be based on the following staking plan:
0.25 units is a speculation ('spec') bet at a bigger price.
0.50 units to 1.00 units is a low confidence bet.
1.00 units to 2.00 units is a medium confidence bet.
2.00 units to 3.00 units is a high confidence bet.
5.00 units is the maximum bet and is a 'special', or a very high confidence bet.
In addition, we'll put more of an emphasis on our highlighted runners (medium to high confidence bets) and lower bets on our 'Other' runners (low confidence). This is because the highlighted runners are striking at much more favourable 31% WIN & 62% PLC since August 2020 for 600+ runners.
We recommend you have a TAB, TopSport (click here), Bet365 and Betfair account.
Total outlay is 1.00 units.
Cranbourne, Race 8
SISTINE EXPLORER ~ 1.00 units WIN @ $2.70 (TopSport)
Overall (since 21 Oct, 2021): +12.41 units at Recommend Price | +46.46 units at Betfair SP
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