The Jump Outs
Nov 8, 2022
Please see below for our #BlackBook runner comments for Wednesday, 9 November 2022. All #BlackBook runners come from our weekly reviews and our split into two categories - these are are summarised in our "BlackBook Runners - Summary" with our confidence and thoughts. We have also included some runners in our "BlackBook Runners - Watchlist" that are those worth keeping in mind if you're playing the race. For information on our staking, see here.
HAWKESBURY - Race 2
OTHER
It’s hard to believe that #2 NULLIFY is a 14-start on the back of her work in Trial 7 on Oct 28 over the 1050m, she was a clear class above. The 4yo mare got a lovely trailing position through the heat, showing a tremendous turn of foot over the final 300m or so as she pulled out, she put a good 3L on those leaders in a matter of strides and with absolute ease. Not sure what to make of her considering her record but she has always been consistent and this was a lovely return off a 12-week let up. Worth following this mare first up.
HAWKESBURY - Race 3
OTHER
#7 JOYRIDER is a 3yo Snitzel colt that was purchased by Amanda Turner on the Inglis Online Sale after being a $800k purchase for James Harron only 18 months earlier at the Magic Millions Gold Coast Sales in 2021. He was 2nd on debut to Zou Sensation (who was then 3rd in separate LR back-to-back) before finishing 3rd to Fast Witness (won a LR race next start). He’s had an 11-week let up whilst being sold, returning in Trial 14 where he led from start to finish and did so quite comfortably in the end, clocking the second fastest time of the morning in the process. He also clocking the second fastest L600m at 33.80s behind only Belluci Babe, those two being the only ones to click sub-34s L600m’s for the morning, which is very encouraging. He’s got a maiden win in him, no doubt.
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BLACKBOOK RUNNERS - SUMMARY
BLACKBOOK RUNNERS - WATCHLIST
Last Updated: 8:50am on Wednesday, 9th November 2022.
Overall Results by Category (since Aug 2020):
'Highlighted' Runners: 697x runners | 214x winners (31%) & 222x placings (63%)
Ave Betfair SP | $8.14 WIN $2.29 PLC
'Other' Runners: 1053x runners | 253x winners (24%) & 286x placings (51%)
Ave Betfair SP | $12.16 WIN $3.02 PLC
Overall Results by Confidence (since Aug 2022):
High Confidence: 35x runners | 23x wins (66%) & 7x placings (86%)
Medium Confidence: 62x runners | 27x wins (44%) & 17x placings (71%)
Low/Medium Confidence: 53x runners | 9x wins (17%) & 16x placings (47%)
Low Confidence: 10x runners | 3x wins (30%) & 2x placings (50%)
STAKING
We know that everyone takes a different approach to their staking, which is why we don't delve into specific staking for each of our runners and we leave how you stake and bet our runners completely up to the individual.
Personally, we have followed different staking systems over the years to fine tune our own punting, but have found that the most profitable approach is to follow a "Collect system".
This system means that the punter (us) bets on the win only (no place bet) to collect 4% of our bank on every BlackBook runner we have. To begin, you need to select a starting bank - as an example, a starting bank of $10,000 will see us betting to collect $400 (4%) on each runner.
If a runner is $2, we will bet $200 @2 to collect $400.
If a runner is $20, we will bet $20 @20 to collect $400.
If a runner is $3.50, we will bet ~$114 @3.50 to collect ~$400.
We highly recommend having a read of the below PDF document from Dan O'Sullivan in regard to the Six Rules to Increase Profit, Staking like a Professional and Punting As An Investment (see here):