The Jump Outs
Nov 29, 2022
Updated: Nov 30, 2022
Please see below for our #BlackBook runner comments for Wednesday, 30 November 2022. All #BlackBook runners come from our weekly reviews and our split into two categories - these are are summarised in our "BlackBook Runners - Summary" with our confidence and thoughts. We have also included some runners in our "BlackBook Runners - Watchlist" that are those worth keeping in mind if you're playing the race. For information on our staking, see here.
GEELONG - Race 3
#7 KERMACETO (13) - G Begg
Liked the way KERMACETO closed into 3rd place in Heat 11 on Nov 7. Nice first jump out this prep for this 3yo filly, she’s worth monitoring into another jump out.
We mentioned KERMACETO following her Nov 7 jump out where she cruised into 3rd place, the 2nd placed horse being Daimyo who ran a 1.4L 4th on Saturday at Tatura when closing quite smartly from the back. Our filly though was back a the jump outs in Heat 17 on Nov 21, stepping up to 1000m and recording a very slick win. She jumped beautifully, settling just behind the leaders before getting some room in the straight and displaying a lovely turn of foot despite never actually being fully asked for an effort, going to and through the line quite smartly. A 3yo daughter of Kermadec that was a $45k purchase, she looks a lovely mover and we have to be with her on debut.
GEELONG - Race 6
OTHER
#9 LONSDALEITE settled in a trailing position throughout the run but closed really well over the concluding stages to finish a close 2nd to the talented Ice Pick Nick in Heat 7 on Nov 7 - no blinkers were on either, which he’s worn in his last two starts (after going on when he won his maiden).
Another nice jump out from #9 LONSDALEITE who’s resuming gelded, winning Heat 4 on Nov 14 to back up his close 2nd placing on Nov 7. Again, he had no blinkers on so it’ll be interesting to see if they’re on first up.
TELEGRAM CHAT
1. Download Telegram on your device using the following link: https://telegram.org
2. Join the "BlackBook Updates" channel using the following link: https://t.me/+4gAUzhHXzrU4OTQ1
3. If you want to be apart of the chat with everyone, join our "BlackBook Chat" group using the following link: https://t.me/+jdE9tx0l-NljM2I9
BLACKBOOK RUNNERS - SUMMARY
BLACKBOOK RUNNERS - WATCHLIST
Last Updated: 8:08am on Wednesday, 30th November 2022.
Overall Results by Category (since Aug 2020):
'Highlighted' Runners: 699x runners | 214x winners (31%) & 223x placings (63%)
Ave Betfair SP | $8.13 WIN $2.29 PLC
'Other' Runners: 1072x runners | 258x winners (24%) & 294x placings (51%)
Ave Betfair SP | $12.03 WIN $3.00 PLC
Overall Results by Confidence (since Aug 2022):
High Confidence: 38x runners | 24x wins (63%) & 8x placings (84%)
Medium Confidence: 70x runners | 29x wins (41%) & 18x placings (67%)
Low/Medium Confidence: 62x runners | 11x wins (18%) & 22x placings (53%)
Low Confidence: 11x runners | 3x wins (27%) & 3x placings (55%)
STAKING
We know that everyone takes a different approach to their staking, which is why we don't delve into specific staking for each of our runners and we leave how you stake and bet our runners completely up to the individual.
Personally, we have followed different staking systems over the years to fine tune our own punting, but have found that the most profitable approach is to follow a "Collect system".
This system means that the punter (us) bets on the win only (no place bet) to collect 4% of our bank on every BlackBook runner we have. To begin, you need to select a starting bank - as an example, a starting bank of $10,000 will see us betting to collect $400 (4%) on each runner.
If a runner is $2, we will bet $200 @2 to collect $400.
If a runner is $20, we will bet $20 @20 to collect $400.
If a runner is $3.50, we will bet ~$114 @3.50 to collect ~$400.
We highly recommend having a read of the below PDF document from Dan O'Sullivan in regard to the Six Rules to Increase Profit, Staking like a Professional and Punting As An Investment (see here):