The Jump Outs
May 2, 2023
Please see below for our #BlackBook runner comments for Wednesday, 3 May 2023. All #BlackBook runners come from our weekly reviews and our split into two categories - those that we are betting / playing are summarised in our "BlackBook Runners - Tips Summary" with our confidence and race thoughts, while those we aren't betting / playing are included in our "BlackBook Runners - Watchlist" and are worth keeping in mind if you're playing the race. For information on our staking, see here.
WARRNAMBOOL - Race 2
#7 SIERRA DE GREDOS (7) - M Price & M Kent Jnr
Super bit of work from the un-race SIERRA DE GREDOS in Heat 7 on Apr 17, the 3yo gelding settling last throughout but closing superbly down the middle of the track as he was put under pressure, taking ground off Our Playboy who skipped away to a bit of a lead but he was quickly eating that up late over the 1000m. Unsure which one he was in his Apr 11 jump out as there are no silks, but if he’s the outside as the results suggest, he was well held and cruised there. A son of Almanzor, you won’t see many maiden’s take ground off a horse of Our Playboy’s calibre so a super bit of work and a gelding we want to follow.
A third jump out now for SIERRA DE GREDOS and would expect him to be hard to beat wherever he goes. We were very keen to follow him following his Apr 17 jump out where he finished 2nd to Our Playboy but was making very good ground late. He was away well in Heat 8 on Apr 24 but was restrained in the early stages to take up a trailing position out the back, doing his best work in the straight as he got the gaps and extended when asked, closing over the top of the leaders to win over the 1000m in average time for the morning. Expect to see this son of Almanzor over 1400m first up and getting over further the deeper he gets into the prep and think we can follow him.
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BLACKBOOK RUNNERS - TIPS SUMMARY
BLACKBOOK RUNNERS - WATCHLIST
Last Updated: 7:45am AEDT on Wednesday, 3rd May 2023.
STAKING
We know that everyone takes a different approach to their staking, which is why we don't delve into specific staking for each of our runners and we leave how you stake and bet our runners completely up to the individual.
Personally, we have followed different staking systems over the years to fine tune our own punting, but have found that the most profitable approach is to follow a "Collect system".
This system means that the punter (us) bets on the win only (no place bet) to collect 4% of our bank on every BlackBook runner we have. To begin, you need to select a starting bank - as an example, a starting bank of $10,000 will see us betting to collect $400 (4%) on each runner.
If a runner is $2, we will bet $200 @2 to collect $400.
If a runner is $20, we will bet $20 @20 to collect $400.
If a runner is $3.50, we will bet ~$114 @3.50 to collect ~$400.
We highly recommend having a read of the below PDF document from Dan O'Sullivan in regard to the Six Rules to Increase Profit, Staking like a Professional and Punting As An Investment (see here):