The Jump Outs
Apr 8, 2023
Please see below for our #BlackBook runner comments for Sunday, 9 April 2023. All #BlackBook runners come from our weekly reviews and our split into two categories - those that we are betting / playing are summarised in our "BlackBook Runners - Tips Summary" with our confidence and race thoughts, while those we aren't betting / playing are included in our "BlackBook Runners - Watchlist" and are worth keeping in mind if you're playing the race. For information on our staking, see here.
MORNINGTON - Race 3
OTHER
I Am Caviar attempted to kick away in Heat 5 on Mar 21 as he was put under a lot of pressure, but the class of #6 ELLY DEE showed late as she closed super to get over the top and win, putting a huge gap on 3rd in the process. We backed her on debut at Mornington but she was no match for Musashi (won then on a 0-64 by 4L next start) despite accounting for the rest of the field, beating 3rd by 2.25L. She then went to Cranbourne and ran 3rd to Nunthorpe (since 3rd in Group 3) and Shaime (won MDN next start) while defeating Lievor (since 1st in MDN & BM64) and Reo (since 1st in MDN & CL1), so it’s super form all around her. Hoping she has another jump out before resuming but regardless, very keen to follow her and think she’ll be hard to beat first up.
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BLACKBOOK RUNNERS - TIPS SUMMARY
BLACKBOOK RUNNERS - WATCHLIST
Last Updated: 9:20am AEDT on Sunday, 9th April 2023.
STAKING
We know that everyone takes a different approach to their staking, which is why we don't delve into specific staking for each of our runners and we leave how you stake and bet our runners completely up to the individual.
Personally, we have followed different staking systems over the years to fine tune our own punting, but have found that the most profitable approach is to follow a "Collect system".
This system means that the punter (us) bets on the win only (no place bet) to collect 4% of our bank on every BlackBook runner we have. To begin, you need to select a starting bank - as an example, a starting bank of $10,000 will see us betting to collect $400 (4%) on each runner.
If a runner is $2, we will bet $200 @2 to collect $400.
If a runner is $20, we will bet $20 @20 to collect $400.
If a runner is $3.50, we will bet ~$114 @3.50 to collect ~$400.
We highly recommend having a read of the below PDF document from Dan O'Sullivan in regard to the Six Rules to Increase Profit, Staking like a Professional and Punting As An Investment (see here):