The Jump Outs
Dec 17, 2022
Please see below for our #BlackBook runner comments for Sunday, 18 December 2022. All #BlackBook runners come from our weekly reviews and our split into two categories - these are are summarised in our "BlackBook Runners - Summary" with our confidence and thoughts. We have also included some runners in our "BlackBook Runners - Watchlist" that are those worth keeping in mind if you're playing the race. For information on our staking, see here.
HORSHAM - Race 1
OTHER
A super jump out from #10 FRENCH WITNESS, taking out Heat 3 on Dec 9 where she got a lovely run with cover along the rail throughout before popping out to the middle of the track around the bend and coming home really nicely while under a strong hold, albeit clocking slow time for the morning. The 3yo Star Witness filly won a previous jump out on Dec 1 as well where she got a similar run but was pushed out late to win. She’s looked nice at the jump outs and can run well on debut.
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BLACKBOOK RUNNERS - SUMMARY
BLACKBOOK RUNNERS - WATCHLIST
Last Updated: 9:00am on Sunday, 18th December 2022.
Overall Results by Category (since Aug 2020):
'Highlighted' Runners: 704x runners | 216x winners (31%) & 225x placings (63%)
Ave Betfair SP | $8.09 WIN $2.28 PLC
'Other' Runners: 1101x runners | 268x winners (24%) & 301x placings (52%)
Ave Betfair SP | $12.20 WIN $3.01 PLC
Overall Results by Confidence (since Aug 2022):
High Confidence: 42x runners | 25x wins (60%) & 11x placings (86%)
Medium Confidence: 80x runners | 34x wins (43%) & 20x placings (68%)
Low/Medium Confidence: 76x runners | 16x wins (21%) & 24x placings (53%)
Low Confidence: 17x runners | 4x wins (24%) & 5x placings (53%)
STAKING
We know that everyone takes a different approach to their staking, which is why we don't delve into specific staking for each of our runners and we leave how you stake and bet our runners completely up to the individual.
Personally, we have followed different staking systems over the years to fine tune our own punting, but have found that the most profitable approach is to follow a "Collect system".
This system means that the punter (us) bets on the win only (no place bet) to collect 4% of our bank on every BlackBook runner we have. To begin, you need to select a starting bank - as an example, a starting bank of $10,000 will see us betting to collect $400 (4%) on each runner.
If a runner is $2, we will bet $200 @2 to collect $400.
If a runner is $20, we will bet $20 @20 to collect $400.
If a runner is $3.50, we will bet ~$114 @3.50 to collect ~$400.
We highly recommend having a read of the below PDF document from Dan O'Sullivan in regard to the Six Rules to Increase Profit, Staking like a Professional and Punting As An Investment (see here):