The Jump Outs
Feb 11, 2023
Please see below for our #BlackBook runner comments for Sunday, 12 February 2023. All #BlackBook runners come from our weekly reviews and our split into two categories - these are are summarised in our "BlackBook Runners - Tips Summary" with our confidence and thoughts. We have also included some runners in our "BlackBook Runners - Watchlist" that are those worth keeping in mind if you're playing the race. For information on our staking, see here.
WERRIBEE - Race 1
OTHER
The first three across the line in Heat 5 on Feb 6 were cruising under a hold, clocking the fastest time of the morning in the process. Of those three, Mckeever and Pythagoras have both won multiple races, while the other was the 7-start maiden in #7 CRACKER BELLE. Having her second jump out ahead of her return, she got a lovely run in behind the speed here before getting the gap late to have some room to close off, which she did nicely. She’ll run well first up and look for that Vella x Vella jockey and trainer combination.
WERRIBEE - Race 3
OTHER
#3 IRISH CRICKETS has had plenty of jump outs so there will be no doubt on how forward he is for his debut and based on his win in Heat 6 on Jan 4 where he was 4-wide without cover throughout but still was able to close off to win and clock the third time of the morning. His previous three jump outs saw him close super into 3rd on Dec 7 over 600m behind Bistro before leading over 900m on Dec 14 but being overrun late and then finishing 2nd again on Dec 23. He’s one to keep an eye on for his debut.
BENDIGO - Race 3
OTHER
Shane Fliedner could have a nice 3yo on his hands in #3 ALLOCATE. He was 2nd to the 2yo Celui in a Dec 6 jump out, that colt winning on debut, before then running 4th on Jan 20 where he was actually quite poor. He was given a freshen up and returned for an official trial on Jan 11 where he sat outside the leader in Dinga before being ridden out and extending away really nicely, winning by 3L with a massive further 8L gap back to third. He didn’t have the same sort of space in Heat 2 on Feb 2 despite clearly being the best away, restrained to take a sit along the fence and only getting out really late along the inside but exploding to the front to win late. He looks to have a ripper turn of foot and expect him to be near the lead on debut so he’s one we can follow on debut. He goes well.
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BLACKBOOK RUNNERS - TIPS SUMMARY
BLACKBOOK RUNNERS - WATCHLIST
Last Updated: 8:42am AEDT on Sunday, 12th February 2023.
STAKING
We know that everyone takes a different approach to their staking, which is why we don't delve into specific staking for each of our runners and we leave how you stake and bet our runners completely up to the individual.
Personally, we have followed different staking systems over the years to fine tune our own punting, but have found that the most profitable approach is to follow a "Collect system".
This system means that the punter (us) bets on the win only (no place bet) to collect 4% of our bank on every BlackBook runner we have. To begin, you need to select a starting bank - as an example, a starting bank of $10,000 will see us betting to collect $400 (4%) on each runner.
If a runner is $2, we will bet $200 @2 to collect $400.
If a runner is $20, we will bet $20 @20 to collect $400.
If a runner is $3.50, we will bet ~$114 @3.50 to collect ~$400.
We highly recommend having a read of the below PDF document from Dan O'Sullivan in regard to the Six Rules to Increase Profit, Staking like a Professional and Punting As An Investment (see here):