The Jump Outs
Aug 5, 2022
Please see below for our #BlackBook runner comments for Saturday, 6 August 2022. The runner's highlighted are our #BlackBook runners (the key runners of focus), while those included in the 'other' section of each race are additional runner's that have jumped out well enough to be worth noting. Our figures and benchmark ratings are from PuntingForm.
CLICK HERE TO SEE OUR BLACKBOOK SUMMARY
MOE - Race 1
OTHER
Hard not to be impressed by the Kiwi #4 RAETIHI, with the 3yo Savabeel gelding winning Heat 14 on Jul 25 as comfortably as you would like. Unlike his jump outs in a previous prep, he wasted little time here heading straight to the front and doing it easy, handling the Heavy conditions with ease and did so under his own steam. It was a lovely first jump out.
All eyes would’ve been on the winner of #7 LITTLE MISS KUBI’s Jul 13 jump out, but if you watch back in the field, this filly closed super from the back of the field to finish 2nd. This was not dissimilar in her 2nd placing in Heat 6 on Jul 27, cruising just off the speed and closing well late, all while quietly ridden and doing so very comfortably. Keeping an eye on where she pops up.
MOE - Race 2
OTHER
Nice win by #8 G’DAY GORGEOUS, leading from start to finish to take out Heat 13 on Jul 25 comfortably. She went straight to the front here while sticking off the rail, where she was then put under pressure at the top of the straight and opening up a nice margin before being eased down late. Treading very carefully though as she did get out to a big early lead in her previous jump out on Jul 11 as well, so she might just be a genuine jump and run horse that struggles over more than 800m, but regardless, she should be a nice price first up and would be worth a bet in a 1000m maiden.
It’s hard to ignore #9 LAGO’S DAUGHTER now, winning Heat 10 on Jul 27 comfortably as she sat on speed and sprinted away from the field to record an easy ~3L victory. This marks her third jump out having finished 2nd on Jun 15 behind a breakaway leader and 1st on Jun 29 ahead of Mango Tango Wine (since 1.5L off a MDN first up). With these 3x 900m jump outs under her belt, she should be forward enough for her debut and she handles the wet well. A 3yo filly to monitor.
FLEMINGTON - Race 3
OTHER
#13 VERANSKOVA was a superb winner of Heat 3 on Jul 25, an absolute class above this field. The 4yo mare ran 2nd first up at Flemington behind Squid Game, coming from last in some slick closing sectionals to go down only 0.1L. Follow her second up, the first up run and this mid-prep jump out were super.
NEWCASTLE - Race 3
OTHER
#6 ANOTHER COGNAC was was 3rd in his first trial on Jun 20 behind Airman (since 1st) and Fashion Legend (since 4th MDN and 1st 2YO SW&P). He showed tremendous early speed here to go forward and lead very comfortably over the 900m but was just overran late, albeit under a hold. He did similar in Heat 12 on Jul 15, pushing forward from out wide to lead and win quite comfortably in the end as he went to the line under a hold while those behind him were pushed out, clocking the second fastest 740m time of the morning in the process. We haven’t seen what is under the hood yet, so there is a slight query there as he has just been a jump and run type in the trials so far, but he’s looked comfortable and can be one to watch on debut.
BLACKBOOK RUNNERS - SUMMARY
BLACKBOOK WATCHLIST
The below aren't #BlackBook runners or recommended bets (unless stated), but are those we have notes on and are worth keeping in mind if you're playing (i.e. quaddie's etc).
Last Updated: 8:26am on Saturday, 6th August 2022.
Results (Aug '20 to Today):
'Highlighted' Runners:
672x runners | 202x winners (30%) & 212x placings (62%)
Ave Betfair SP | $8.28 WIN $2.30 PLC
'Other' Runners:
929x runners | 208x winners (22%) & 256x placings (50%)
Ave Betfair SP | $12.80 WIN $3.11 PLC
STAKING
How you stake and bet our runners is completely up to you. Everyone takes a different approach to their staking - we know some like to back each runner to profit the same (e.g. profit 10 units for each runner), some back each runner according to our confidence (e.g. 1 unit for low/medium, 2 units for medium, 3 units for high etc.) and many others.
Personally, we follow a system where we bet on the win only (no place) to collect 4% of our bank on every runner. For example, if your starting bank is $10,000, then you will be betting to collect $400 (4%).
If a runner is $2, you will bet $200 @2 to collect $400.
If a runner is $20, you will bet $10 @20 to collect $400.
If a runner is $3.50, you will bet ~$114 @3.50 to collect ~$400.
We highly recommend having a read of the below PDF document from Dan O'Sullivan in regard to the Six Rules to Increase Profit, Staking like a Professional and Punting As An Investment (see here):