The Jump Outs
Dec 24, 2022
Please see below for our #BlackBook runner comments for Saturday, 24 December 2022. All #BlackBook runners come from our weekly reviews and our split into two categories - these are are summarised in our "BlackBook Runners - Summary" with our confidence and thoughts. We have also included some runners in our "BlackBook Runners - Watchlist" that are those worth keeping in mind if you're playing the race. For information on our staking, see here.
MOONEE VALLEY - Race 4
OTHER
Would be surprised if #12 RICH FORTUNE doesn’t break her maiden first or second up this prep, mainly first up. She was super in her first jump out back, taking out Heat 8 on Dec 7 in very impressive fashion. The 3yo filly jumped well but was quietly ridden to take a sit before making her way through and past the field with ease, her best work coming over the final 200m as she just cruised to and through the line, winning in the second fastest time of the morning. She was a beaten $2.10 SP favourite on debut by Sorel Rising who then went to Flemington and ran a 3.6L 5th behind Elkington Road, which is certainly some handy form when you also take into account the 4.25L gap to 3rd. She’s got more than enough talent this filly and we’re keen to follow her.
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BLACKBOOK RUNNERS - SUMMARY
BLACKBOOK RUNNERS - WATCHLIST
Last Updated: 8:47m on Saturday, 24th December 2022.
Overall Results by Category (since Aug 2020):
'Highlighted' Runners: 706x runners | 217x winners (31%) & 226x placings (63%)
Ave Betfair SP | $8.07 WIN $2.28 PLC
'Other' Runners: 1110x runners | 271x winners (24%) & 303x placings (52%)
Ave Betfair SP | $12.21 WIN $3.01 PLC
Overall Results by Confidence (since Aug 2022):
High Confidence: 44x runners | 26x wins (59%) & 12x placings (86%)
Medium Confidence: 84x runners | 35x wins (42%) & 22x placings (68%)
Low/Medium Confidence: 80x runners | 18x wins (23%) & 24x placings (53%)
Low Confidence: 18x runners | 4x wins (22%) & 5x placings (50%)
STAKING
We know that everyone takes a different approach to their staking, which is why we don't delve into specific staking for each of our runners and we leave how you stake and bet our runners completely up to the individual.
Personally, we have followed different staking systems over the years to fine tune our own punting, but have found that the most profitable approach is to follow a "Collect system".
This system means that the punter (us) bets on the win only (no place bet) to collect 4% of our bank on every BlackBook runner we have. To begin, you need to select a starting bank - as an example, a starting bank of $10,000 will see us betting to collect $400 (4%) on each runner.
If a runner is $2, we will bet $200 @2 to collect $400.
If a runner is $20, we will bet $20 @20 to collect $400.
If a runner is $3.50, we will bet ~$114 @3.50 to collect ~$400.
We highly recommend having a read of the below PDF document from Dan O'Sullivan in regard to the Six Rules to Increase Profit, Staking like a Professional and Punting As An Investment (see here):