The Jump Outs
Mar 30, 2023
Please see below for our #BlackBook runner comments for Friday, 31 March 2023. All #BlackBook runners come from our weekly reviews and our split into two categories - these are are summarised in our "BlackBook Runners - Tips Summary" with our confidence and thoughts. We have also included some runners in our "BlackBook Runners - Watchlist" that are those worth keeping in mind if you're playing the race. For information on our staking, see here.
CRANBOURNE - Race 1
OTHER
Have liked the way #6 FREE WILLED has gone about her jump outs. As mentioned a couple weeks ago, she has made her way to the Alderson yard following two NZ trials on Nov 3 and Dec 6 where she certainly looks to have some talent. She was 2nd in a Feb 13 jump out before backing them up in Heat 14 on Feb 27 where she sat in behind the leaders throughout the heat until late as they were pushed out and she was still cruising, checking off heels as she then closed nicely in the final 200m. She’s a nice mover and a big watch on debut here.
CRANBOURNE - Race 3
OTHER
The Boulder City filly #9 RUB OF THE GREEN got out to a sizeable lead in the early stages of Heat 5 on Mar 21 and looked the goods but they did catch her late, so unsure if she tired or if she was pulled up, which we’ll only find out once it’s too late as she would’ve already raced. Her first jump out on Feb 21 saw her quietly ridden out the back after being slow away while her official trial at Berrigan on Mar 4 doesn’t have any vision so it’s hard to get a real guide on her but think she’s worth keeping an eye on first up pending price.
A pair of jump out wins now for #10 TORONLUCA ahead of her debut. This 3yo filly had a pair of jump outs in a previous campaign in Oct/Nov last year that culminated in her cruising to a 2nd placing behind the talented 2yo Serasana on Nov 7 before going for a spell. She returned on Mar 5 that saw her win quite well down the middle of the track where she was again cruising throughout, albeit over only 650m, before then stepping up to 800m in Heat 8 on Mar 20 for quite a dominant win in the end. She looked to be quite heavily restrained down the back straight as she took some cover form the wide barrier and she clearly did her best work in the straight once she did peel out for a bit of clear air, closing superbly down the middle of the track again under minimal pressure to get up and win. This Toronado filly looks a lovely mover and wouldn’t surprise us to see Luke Oliver make that $31k back that he paid for her at the Magic Millions Sales. Keen to follow her.
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BLACKBOOK RUNNERS - TIPS SUMMARY
BLACKBOOK RUNNERS - WATCHLIST
Last Updated: 7:53am AEDT on Friday, 31st March 2023.
STAKING
We know that everyone takes a different approach to their staking, which is why we don't delve into specific staking for each of our runners and we leave how you stake and bet our runners completely up to the individual.
Personally, we have followed different staking systems over the years to fine tune our own punting, but have found that the most profitable approach is to follow a "Collect system".
This system means that the punter (us) bets on the win only (no place bet) to collect 4% of our bank on every BlackBook runner we have. To begin, you need to select a starting bank - as an example, a starting bank of $10,000 will see us betting to collect $400 (4%) on each runner.
If a runner is $2, we will bet $200 @2 to collect $400.
If a runner is $20, we will bet $20 @20 to collect $400.
If a runner is $3.50, we will bet ~$114 @3.50 to collect ~$400.
We highly recommend having a read of the below PDF document from Dan O'Sullivan in regard to the Six Rules to Increase Profit, Staking like a Professional and Punting As An Investment (see here):