The Jump Outs
Nov 24, 2022
Please see below for our #BlackBook runner comments for Friday, 25 November 2022. All #BlackBook runners come from our weekly reviews and our split into two categories - these are are summarised in our "BlackBook Runners - Summary" with our confidence and thoughts. We have also included some runners in our "BlackBook Runners - Watchlist" that are those worth keeping in mind if you're playing the race. For information on our staking, see here.
CANTERBURY - Race 3
OTHER
It looks like Mark Newnham has quite a smart filly on his hands in #6 BETSY’S FLAG. The 3yo daughter of Astern was heavily restrained in the early stages of Trial 13 on Nov 8 and forced to sit at the rear of the field while under a strong hold. It was her work over the concluding stages that really caught the eye, getting to the outside of the track and exploding to victory, recording a very dominant 1.44L victory with relative ease in the end. Looking back on her Oct 28 trial, she got a lovely run in behind the speed where she just cruised until 200m where she was pulled back to the inside and exploded to the front, doing her best work past the line. Quite keen to following this filly, she moves really well.
TELEGRAM CHAT
1. Download Telegram on your device using the following link: https://telegram.org
2. Join the "BlackBook Updates" channel using the following link: https://t.me/+4gAUzhHXzrU4OTQ1
3. Join the "BlackBook Chat" group using the following link: https://t.me/+jdE9tx0l-NljM2I9
BLACKBOOK RUNNERS - SUMMARY
BLACKBOOK RUNNERS - WATCHLIST
Last Updated: 11:30am on Friday, 25th November 2022.
Overall Results by Category (since Aug 2020):
'Highlighted' Runners: 699x runners | 214x winners (31%) & 223x placings (63%)
Ave Betfair SP | $8.13 WIN $2.29 PLC
'Other' Runners: 1066x runners | 257x winners (24%) & 291x placings (51%)
Ave Betfair SP | $12.08 WIN $3.01 PLC
Overall Results by Confidence (since Aug 2022):
High Confidence: 38x runners | 24x wins (63%) & 8x placings (84%)
Medium Confidence: 67x runners | 29x wins (43%) & 17x placings (69%)
Low/Medium Confidence: 59x runners | 10x wins (17%) & 20x placings (51%)
Low Confidence: 11x runners | 3x wins (27%) & 3x placings (55%)
STAKING
We know that everyone takes a different approach to their staking, which is why we don't delve into specific staking for each of our runners and we leave how you stake and bet our runners completely up to the individual.
Personally, we have followed different staking systems over the years to fine tune our own punting, but have found that the most profitable approach is to follow a "Collect system".
This system means that the punter (us) bets on the win only (no place bet) to collect 4% of our bank on every BlackBook runner we have. To begin, you need to select a starting bank - as an example, a starting bank of $10,000 will see us betting to collect $400 (4%) on each runner.
If a runner is $2, we will bet $200 @2 to collect $400.
If a runner is $20, we will bet $20 @20 to collect $400.
If a runner is $3.50, we will bet ~$114 @3.50 to collect ~$400.
We highly recommend having a read of the below PDF document from Dan O'Sullivan in regard to the Six Rules to Increase Profit, Staking like a Professional and Punting As An Investment (see here):