The Jump Outs
Jan 19, 2023
Updated: Jan 20, 2023
Please see below for our #BlackBook runner comments for Friday, 20 January 2023. All #BlackBook runners come from our weekly reviews and our split into two categories - these are are summarised in our "BlackBook Runners - Tips Summary" with our confidence and thoughts. We have also included some runners in our "BlackBook Runners - Watchlist" that are those worth keeping in mind if you're playing the race. For information on our staking, see here.
CANBERRA - Race 4
OTHER
#5 DANCING ALONE showed a super turn of foot late to win Trial 16 on Jan 3, clocking slick time in the process (fourth fastest of the morning). The 3yo I Am Invincible filly was away well but ridden with no urgency as she took up a spot midfield just off the leaders but wide where she then came to the outside of the track late and was given a squeeze over the final 200m and went bang to win with a bit in hand. She had a Dec 19 trial at Hawkesbury where she was out the back and didn’t have much room, ducking and weaving to find a way through in the straight but did get out very late to close well into 3rd place as well, so love to see her close well again and win this time. She was a $1.4M buy from the 2021 Inglis Yearling sales, so there will be no shortage of expectations on her and she looks quite talented. Big watch on this filly.
FLEMINGTON - Race 1
OTHER
Enver looks to train and own a nice move Nostradamus gelding on his hands in #3 THEORUM. Her work in Heat 9 on Dec 28 was his third jump out this prep where he was away midfield but slowly made his way forward and cruised to the line under his own steam in a nice bit of work, but he likely needs another jump out considering his previous jump outs were a win on Oct 17 and a 2nd placing on Oct 31, so a bit of a gap in between. He’s also had another two preps with two jump outs in each of these preps, so it’s taking him some time to get to the races but we know Enver is patient and his patience generally pays off so lets keep a close eye on this 4yo gelding.
We mentioned #3 THEORUM after finishing 2nd in a Dec 28 jump out and he went one better in Heat 7 on Jan 9, winning ahead of a few that move well enough. Enver has been very patient with this 4yo gelded son of Nostradamus, this being his fourth set of two jump outs so he’s now had the 8x jump outs ahead of his debut, four of them since October this prep. He’ll be certainly well educated for his debut and should be competitive.
Solid win by #6 GRAYSONG, taking out Heat 14 on Dec 22 over the 1000m as he stuck to the rail and put up a good margin on the field when put under a fair bit of pressure, he responded. He’s extremely well bred, by I Am Invincible out of Rewaaya, a Group 1 winner of the Rupert Clarke Stakes as well as being Group 1 placed in the Australian Stakes.
The well bred I Am Invincible gelding, #6 GRAYSONG was back at it again, taking out Heat 16 on Jan 4 by a huge margin as he led alongside another runner who he then left in his wake as he was pushed out in the straight. As we mentioned after his Dec 22 win, he’s very well bred being out of the Group 1 winner Rewaaya and on the back of these three jump outs, he’ll be forward enough on debut and can go well.
#12 MUISCA has now put together two nice jump outs, winning a Dec 13 jump out before running on really well from last to finish 2nd in Heat 3 on Dec 27 behind Dio, who’s certainly a lot more experienced than her. The 3yo filly looks to have come back in good order following her one-run debut prep that saw her finish 4th as a $3.20 SP second favourite, albeit on a Heavy9 track where she led so she may be looking for those dry tracks. We want to be following her into her first up run this prep.
TELEGRAM CHAT
1. Download Telegram on your device using the following link: https://telegram.org
2. Join the "BlackBook Updates" channel using the following link: https://t.me/+4gAUzhHXzrU4OTQ1
3. If you want to be apart of the chat with everyone, join our "BlackBook Chat" group using the following link:
BLACKBOOK RUNNERS - TIPS SUMMARY
BLACKBOOK RUNNERS - WATCHLIST
Last Updated: 8:00am AEDT on Friday, 20th January 2023.
STAKING
We know that everyone takes a different approach to their staking, which is why we don't delve into specific staking for each of our runners and we leave how you stake and bet our runners completely up to the individual.
Personally, we have followed different staking systems over the years to fine tune our own punting, but have found that the most profitable approach is to follow a "Collect system".
This system means that the punter (us) bets on the win only (no place bet) to collect 4% of our bank on every BlackBook runner we have. To begin, you need to select a starting bank - as an example, a starting bank of $10,000 will see us betting to collect $400 (4%) on each runner.
If a runner is $2, we will bet $200 @2 to collect $400.
If a runner is $20, we will bet $20 @20 to collect $400.
If a runner is $3.50, we will bet ~$114 @3.50 to collect ~$400.
We highly recommend having a read of the below PDF document from Dan O'Sullivan in regard to the Six Rules to Increase Profit, Staking like a Professional and Punting As An Investment (see here):