The Jump Outs
Nov 10, 2022
Please see below for our #BlackBook runner comments for Friday, 11 November 2022. All #BlackBook runners come from our weekly reviews and our split into two categories - these are are summarised in our "BlackBook Runners - Summary" with our confidence and thoughts. We have also included some runners in our "BlackBook Runners - Watchlist" that are those worth keeping in mind if you're playing the race. For information on our staking, see here.
MOONEE VALLEY - Race 2
#7 WONDERFUL TONIGHT (3) - M, W & J Hawkes
WONDERFUL TONIGHT is certainly back and she looks in super order. She’s put together two lovely jump outs now, a win on Oct 7 followed up by a close 2nd in Heat 7 on Oct 14 where they clocked the third fastest time of the morning. There is no doubt she’s got plenty of gate speed, jumping straight to the front in both of her jump outs now, going to the line under strong holds in both. As mentioned last week, her debut 3rd reads super not considering it was behind Zouzarella (1st) and Zapateo (2nd), so there is no doubt she has talent and it’ll be a matter of whether she’ll be ready to go first up after such a long spell. A $450k I Am Invincible mare, she looks in good order and we think she’ll be ready to go first up.
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BLACKBOOK RUNNERS - SUMMARY
BLACKBOOK RUNNERS - WATCHLIST
Last Updated: 8:23am on Friday, 11th November 2022.
Overall Results by Category (since Aug 2020):
'Highlighted' Runners: 697x runners | 214x winners (31%) & 222x placings (63%)
Ave Betfair SP | $8.14 WIN $2.29 PLC
'Other' Runners: 1057x runners | 254x winners (24%) & 289x placings (51%)
Ave Betfair SP | $12.14 WIN $3.02 PLC
Overall Results by Confidence (since Aug 2022):
High Confidence: 35x runners | 23x wins (66%) & 7x placings (86%)
Medium Confidence: 63x runners | 28x wins (44%) & 17x placings (71%)
Low/Medium Confidence: 55x runners | 9x wins (16%) & 18x placings (49%)
Low Confidence: 11x runners | 3x wins (27%) & 3x placings (55%)
STAKING
We know that everyone takes a different approach to their staking, which is why we don't delve into specific staking for each of our runners and we leave how you stake and bet our runners completely up to the individual.
Personally, we have followed different staking systems over the years to fine tune our own punting, but have found that the most profitable approach is to follow a "Collect system".
This system means that the punter (us) bets on the win only (no place bet) to collect 4% of our bank on every BlackBook runner we have. To begin, you need to select a starting bank - as an example, a starting bank of $10,000 will see us betting to collect $400 (4%) on each runner.
If a runner is $2, we will bet $200 @2 to collect $400.
If a runner is $20, we will bet $20 @20 to collect $400.
If a runner is $3.50, we will bet ~$114 @3.50 to collect ~$400.
We highly recommend having a read of the below PDF document from Dan O'Sullivan in regard to the Six Rules to Increase Profit, Staking like a Professional and Punting As An Investment (see here):